UK Economic Outlook Turning the corner We think the economy has turned a corner and that GDP growth will beat the consensus forecast by accelerating from 1.0% this year to 1.8% next year. Of course, the lingering uncertainty over the UK’s... 28th January 2020 · 25 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed remains on side lines Next week’s FOMC meeting is likely to be a low-key affair, with the resilience of the recent economic data and the Phase One trade deal justifying the Fed’s decision to bring its recent rate cutting... 24th January 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The U-turns of the markets and the Chancellor The rebound in the activity PMIs have caused the markets to do something of a U-turn and they are now broadly in line our view that interest rates will probably be left at 0.75% at next Thursday’s MPC... 24th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank on hold; Franc rises to near 3-year high Political developments in Norway this past week are no game changer for the economic outlook; we suspect that monetary policy there will remain on hold for the foreseeable future. In contrast, we... 24th January 2020 · 5 mins read
BoE Watch Evidence of renewed momentum may stay MPC’s hand January’s interest rate decision is shaping up to be one of the closest for some time. While the incoming economic news relating to the end of last year has made the case for an immediate cut, the... 24th January 2020 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Wuhan virus threat, BoJ’s forward guidance The surge in inbound tourism in general and in Chinese tourist arrivals in particular means that the Wuhan coronavirus may knock off around 0.5%-pt from GDP growth in the first quarter. Amid mounting... 24th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s wiggle room won’t last The improvement in the labour market in December alongside the surge in retail sales in November should be enough to keep the RBA on the sidelines in February. But we think weak economic activity will... 24th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q4) The strong rise in headline inflation from 1.5% in Q3 to 1.9% in Q4 should be enough to prevent the RBNZ cutting rates in February. And given that we now expect a strengthening in economic activity to... 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What next for the EM easing cycle? We expect that the broad-based EM easing cycle has further to run in the coming months but, as growth and inflation in many countries rise, it will be less widespread than in 2019. More importantly... 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Focus The impact of a second Trump term on the economy If President Donald Trump were to win a second term, we’d expect both fiscal and monetary policy to remain loose, amid a push to install a more dovish Fed Chair in 2022. There would also be an upside... 23rd January 2020 · 21 mins read
Europe Economics Update No change in ECB dovish stance for now The ECB left its policy settings unchanged today, made little change to its assessment of the economic outlook and said nothing new know about the strategy review. While the markets are pricing in no... 23rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank on hold for foreseeable future This morning’s decision by the Norges Bank to leave its key policy rate on hold at 1.50% was widely expected. We suspect that the Bank will leave rates on hold until 2022 though, if anything, our... 23rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia leaves rates on hold, but hints at further cuts Bank Indonesia (BI) today left interest rates unchanged at 5.0% but kept the door open to further cuts. With the economy struggling, inflationary pressures low and the rupiah continuing to appreciate... 23rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Dec.) The fall in the unemployment rate to a nine-month low shows that monetary and fiscal stimulus is starting to work and reduces the pressure on the RBA to cut interest rates. 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada unlikely to cut interest rates We are not convinced the Bank of Canada made a sharp dovish turn today as many suggest. As the data are likely to surprise the Bank to the upside before its next meeting, we continue to see it on hold... 22nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) The Fed’s recent asset purchases and repo auctions have reversed more than half of the earlier quantitative tightening. Even so, it is the Fed’s interest rate cuts that have been the far more... 22nd January 2020 · 3 mins read
