Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Labour Market (Q4) The decline in the unemployment rate to 4.0% in New Zealand all but ensures that the RBNZ will keep rates on hold in February. And given that we forecast employment growth to rise in 2020, we think... 4th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Bank willing to accept below-target inflation The Bank of Canada has implied that it would be willing to accept below-target inflation during periods when financial vulnerabilities are elevated. Accelerating house price inflation means financial... 4th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - RBA will have to cut rates this year The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sounded cautious when it left rates on hold today and we think persistent weakness in the underlying economy will force the Bank to cut interest rates to 0.5% in... 4th February 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC steps up rate cuts in response to Coronavirus The People’s Bank has lowered the rates it charges banks for short-run liquidity. Given the mounting toll of the Coronavirus outbreak, we expect more cuts in the coming months. 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - How overvalued is Australian housing? Even though house prices in Sydney and Melbourne plunged during the housing downturn, the house price to earnings ratio in both cities is still 40% higher than it was a decade ago. However, we think... 3rd February 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Rate call on track, a Brexit transition into the unknown Thursday’s interest rate decision was a good first step on the road to vindicating our view that interest rates won’t be cut this year. And the Bank’s new forecast suggests that the bar to a rate cut... 31st January 2020 · 5 mins read
Monetary policy is losing its power over households The downward trend in interest rates that began in the 1980s contributed to large falls in household saving rates in most advanced economies. But with larger proportions of people now nearing... 30th January 2020 · 20 mins read
UK Economics Update MPC still warning about a cut, but it may not deliver The MPC kept interest rates on hold at 0.75% today but left the door open to a rate cut in the coming months. Nonetheless, with the economy turning a corner and a big fiscal stimulus approaching, we... 30th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: further cuts unlikely after surprise cut The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) unexpectedly cut interest rates today but given our view that the rupee will come under downward pressure again this year, the scope for further loosening is... 30th January 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed on hold; tweaks IOER rate The almost unchanged statement issued at the conclusion of this week's FOMC meeting suggests that Fed officials currently don’t believe the disruption caused by the new coronavirus warrants the type... 29th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Chilean bond yields? We expect that Chile’s central bank will cut interest rates later this year, and that this will push local currency bond yields down over the next 12 months. But with the demands of protestors likely... 29th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Coronavirus unlikely to tip the scales for a rate cut After the SARS outbreak, the Bank of Canada shifted from raising to cutting rates in just three months. Other factors were also at play, however, and the Wuhan virus is less likely to tip the scales... 29th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Run of positive Swedish data buys the Riksbank time The Swedish economy appears to have stabilised in recent months, but we doubt that this will mark the start of a sustained pick-up in growth. While the Riksbank will stay in wait-and-see mode for the... 29th January 2020 · 3 mins read
RBI Watch Easing cycle at an end Policy rates look set to be kept on hold at the conclusion of the RBI’s meeting on Thursday 6th February. Further ahead, the analyst consensus still expects a resumption in the easing cycle once food... 29th January 2020 · 6 mins read
RBA Watch RBA not off the hook yet The further fall in the unemployment rate in December should convince the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep rates unchanged at the meeting on 4th February. But the Bank will probably downgrade... 29th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Consumer Prices (Q4) The pick-up in headline inflation in Q4 should be the final nail in the coffin for hopes of a February rate cut. Even so, weak economic activity should force the bank to cut rates again before long. 29th January 2020 · 2 mins read
