Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central bank responses to the coronavirus fallout The economic disruption from the coronavirus outbreak will lead to further rate cuts in much of Emerging Asia. And in those countries where currencies have fallen sharply, the moves have not been big... 11th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - RBA under less pressure to cut rates The RBA may yet cut rates to 0.25% in response to the drag on economic activity from the bushfires and the coronavirus. But with domestic demand rebounding as the housing slump has turned to boom, the... 10th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank keeps door open to more easing The Russian central bank governor’s post-meeting press conference reinforced the message that, following today’s 25bp interest rate cut to 6.00%, further easing lies in store. We maintain our view... 7th February 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jan.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have edged up in January, in large part due to a continued increase in food inflation. Further ahead, food inflation is likely to ease, but we expect... 7th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA is still too optimistic on the outlook for Australia The RBA has finally come around to our view that economic growth was weak at the end of 2019. But the Bank remains too optimistic on the outlook for 2020. We think the loss of tourism exports due to... 7th February 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Shifting policy stimulus, PMIs, coronavirus Satisfied that the finance ministry was doing its bit to support growth by announcing significant stimulus in the Union Budget, the RBI was able to focus on containing second-round effects from the... 7th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: the implications of central bank independence The Brazilian government’s plans to enshrine full central bank independence in law would help to both keep longer-term inflation expectations low and bring down real interest rates. This adds to the... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Surprise Czech rate hike to be a one-off The statement and press conference following today’s MPC meeting confirmed that the surprise decision to hike interest rates by 25bp, to 2.25%, will be a one-off. Policymakers will probably maintain a... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Central banks to leave inflation-targeting intact…for now While several central banks are undertaking reviews of their monetary policy frameworks this year, the result is likely to be only small tweaks to the existing inflation-targeting frameworks. But this... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: BSP cuts, more easing to come The Philippines (BSP) cut its main policy rate by 25bp to 3.75% today and with growth likely to disappoint and inflation set to remain well within the BSP’s target, we expect more easing later this... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: easing cycle over, but rates to stay low The statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank’s meeting last night gave a clear steer that the easing cycle is now over. With growth likely to stay weak and inflation low, we expect that the... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s easing cycle at an end While keeping rates on hold today, the RBI has kept the door open for further policy loosening over the coming months. But we doubt this will materialise, and expect the central bank to shift to... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Coronavirus: Gauging the policy response Policymakers have loosened both monetary and fiscal policy in an effort to soften the economic blow from the coronavirus. Further easing is likely in the coming weeks. But if the virus peaks soon then... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Easing cycle in Iceland has further to run This morning’s decision by the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) to resume its easing cycle came as no surprise to us following the recent fall in inflation. Given the potential for the coronavirus to... 5th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand to ease further The Bank of Thailand (BoT) cut interest rates today, and with the economy being hit hard by a slump in tourist arrivals as well as disruption to its industrial sector as the coronavirus continues to... 5th February 2020 · 3 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ should remain on hold despite coronavirus The new coronavirus will inevitably impact the New Zealand economy in the first quarter of 2020. Even so, the data has generally improved by more than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)... 5th February 2020 · 7 mins read
