Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: easing cycle near an end, hikes later this year The Turkish central bank (CBRT) shrugged off rising inflation and lowered interest rates by another 50bp today, but the accompanying statement was a little more cautious and we think that the easing... 19th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Reduced stress tests another reason for Bank to hold The proposed change to the mortgage stress tests could put even more upward pressure on house prices over the next 12 months, by increasing the amount that buyers can borrow by more than 3%. With the... 19th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Focus How worried should we be about regional banks? The profitability of Japan’s regional banks is likely to deteriorate further over the next few years. However, there’s little evidence of asset price bubbles and corporate balance sheets have... 19th February 2020 · 22 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Is the SNB learning to live with a stronger franc? While we suspect that the SNB has intervened to slow the rise of the franc in recent weeks, it has not prevented it from reaching a multi-year high against the euro. At the margin, an increased... 18th February 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC cuts rates again, with more easing to come The People’s Bank (PBOC) has taken yet another step to help banks and borrowers weather the economic disruption from the coronavirus outbreak. But more easing will probably be needed. 17th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q4 Preliminary) The sharp drop in output after October’s sales tax hike supports our view that Japan’s economy will shrink this year. But with capacity shortages still tight and underlying inflation holding up, we... 17th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trump reshaping the Fed from the outside Judy Shelton’s rocky Senate nomination hearing this week means that President Donald Trump’s efforts to reshape the Fed from the outside could yet fail at the first hurdle. But the dovish Christopher... 14th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB on hold until later this year The recent economic data have continued to be weak, and ECB policymakers seem more united behind their current “unconventional” policy than they were last year. However, we see no chance of further... 14th February 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Virus strengthens case for EM cuts; little effect on DMs With the coronavirus spreading faster and set to have bigger economic effects than initially assumed, many people are asking how and when central banks will respond. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC)... 14th February 2020 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Extended travel ban threatens education exports Australia has extended its ban on travellers from mainland China until 22 nd February. Given that many universities begin teaching again on 24 th February, there is a growing risk that the travel ban... 14th February 2020 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jan.) The RBI doesn’t put much weight on the wholesale price measure of inflation, but the pick-up in core WPI inflation supports our view that the room for further monetary easing has diminished. 14th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Debt sustainability, early evidence of coronavirus drag The ratio of Japan’s public debt to GDP will probably keep rising over the coming decades. But with the Bank of Japan set to keep a lid on borrowing costs, it’s hard to make the case that public debt... 14th February 2020 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Putting monetary easing on hold We think that a recent string of on-target inflation data and a less accommodating external environment will delay further interest rate cuts in Ghana. But monetary loosening will probably resume in... 13th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea to join regional rate-cutting cycle Given the rising economic toll from the coronavirus, worries about rising property prices and high levels of household debt are unlikely to stop the Bank of Korea (BoK) from cutting interest rates at... 12th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank happy to sit on the fence, for now This morning’s decision by the Riksbank to leave its repo rate on hold at zero percent was never in doubt. While policymakers appear happy to stay in wait-and-see mode for the time being, we suspect... 12th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - The RBNZ’s easing cycle is now over The Reserve Bank of New Zealand sounded confident when it left rates on hold today and we think the improvement in underlying economic conditions means the RBNZ’s easing cycle is now over. 12th February 2020 · 3 mins read
