Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Threat from the coronavirus continues to grow We estimate GDP growth in Australia continued to muddle along in Q4, edging up from 0.4% q/q in Q3 to 0.5% q/q. In New Zealand, we think a stronger contribution from net trade was offset by a decline... 26th February 2020 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC hints at possible rate hike in March The slightly more hawkish tone of the Hungarian central bank’s post-meeting statement supports our view that the central bank will deliver a 10bp hike in the overnight deposit rate next month. However... 25th February 2020 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA can’t ignore weak labour market much longer The Reserve Bank of Australia remains worried that further loosening will provide additional fuel to soaring property prices and won’t cut interest rates at the meeting on Tuesday 3rd March. But with... 25th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: shift towards tightening will be limited Hungary’s central bank will probably use Tuesday’s meeting to flag a shift towards tightening and we expect a small hike in the overnight deposit rate in March. But this is likely to be a symbolic... 24th February 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack The coronavirus impact on Indian industry Temporary disruption from the outbreak of the coronavirus should have limited macroeconomic impact on Indian industry. After all, India has a negligible supply-chain exposure to China, where factory... 24th February 2020 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly The fiscal response, political worries in Thailand The policy response to the coronavirus outbreak has so far been led by the region’s central banks, but governments are also now stepping up to the plate. Earlier this week, Singapore unveiled a budget... 21st February 2020 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE to pause easing cycle for a little longer The Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE) decision to keep interest rates unchanged last night for a second consecutive meeting suggests that policymakers are more concerned by the recent uptick in inflation... 21st February 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan to stick to its guns We have long argued that Japan’s economy will shrink this year and the recent string of bad news has only made that outcome more likely. But we still don’t expect the Bank of Japan to respond with... 21st February 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Unemployment will rise and wage growth will fall Data released this week showed that there is still considerable spare capacity in the labour market. The minutes of the RBA’s February meeting showed that the Bank has some concerns about cutting... 21st February 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Trump trip, the “tunnel of testing trade-offs” Progress on trade negotiations will be high on the agenda during President Trump’s visit to India next week. But we have low expectations for any major breakthrough given the protectionist turn taken... 21st February 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Where are the markets wrong on policy rates in DMs? While we agree with investors’ general view that monetary conditions will be accommodative in DMs this year, there’s a group of countries – including the US – where the markets look too dovish. At the... 20th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB’s more positive outlook won’t have lasted long The account of the ECB’s January meeting suggests that the ECB was becoming a little more positive on the economic outlook. But weak data and the spread of the coronavirus since then will have surely... 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: economic impact of coronavirus to worsen With the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Korea jumping sharply over the past few days, the Bank of Korea is almost certain to cut interest rates at its meeting next week. 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: prolonged easing cycle unlikely Bank Indonesia (BI) today cut its main policy rate by 25bp to 4.75%, but we doubt this will be the start of a prolonged easing cycle given the country’s relatively limited exposure to the slowdown in... 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Rate cut still leaves many firms vulnerable Commercial banks cut the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) today in response to moves by the People's Bank earlier in the month to lower their funding costs. While more easing is likely in the coming weeks, this... 20th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Assessing the risks to our fed funds forecast In contrast to market expectations, we are still sceptical that the Fed will cut interest rates this year, but we agree with Treasury investors that rates are more likely to fall than rise over the... 19th February 2020 · 6 mins read
