UK Economics Update Three bangs from the Bank with the Budget to come The Bank of England’s 50bps emergency interest rate cut, from 0.75% back to the record low of 0.25%, and other measures aimed to support loans to businesses announced this morning is the first salvo... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Recession will prompt RBNZ to slash rates We think that the coronavirus outbreak and the related disruptions in China and to tourism more broadly will push the New Zealand economy into recession. That’s why we expect the RBNZ to slash rates... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed will lower rates to near-zero again Based on the continuing slump in stock markets and the global spread of the coronavirus, we agree with the view in markets that the Fed will cut interest rates to near-zero within the next couple of... 9th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Bank to slash rates to near-zero On top of the rapidly spreading coronavirus outbreak, the slump in oil prices raises the risk of recession this year and suggests that the Bank of Canada will slash its policy rate to just 0.25%. 9th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Repo rate cut to be the Riksbank’s first port of call Against a backdrop of rising pressure on major central banks to loosen policy in response to coronavirus, we now forecast the Riksbank to cut its repo rate back into negative territory at its 28th... 9th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Feb.) The plunge in the Economy Watcher’s Survey (EWS) in February to its lowest level since the 2011 tsunami suggests that the intensified spread of the coronavirus will cause consumer spending to fall... 9th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Will the RBA launch a yield curve target? Most central banks that have introduced quantitative easing in recent years have done so by pledging to buy a certain amount of government bonds. Our base case is that the RBA will do the same when it... 9th March 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economy to take a hit despite Fed’s intervention The Fed’s emergency rate cut this week made it clear that officials are taking the economic risks posed by the coronavirus outbreak seriously. But with the number of new cases rising sharply, we don’t... 6th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Grim outlook means RBA will launch QE before long Recent data show that the Australian economy was sputtering even before the coronavirus started to spread within the country in earnest. We now think the rising number of cases in Australia will cause... 6th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Recession appears baked in, fresh stimulus on the way Consumer spending has rebounded from the slump caused by October’s sales tax hike and we’ve pencilled in a rise in the first quarter. But the coronavirus is likely to result in a renewed slowdown over... 6th March 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Virus a growing threat to domestic activity The jump in coronavirus cases in India this week underlines the threat of a wide-scale outbreak in the country. We are now working on the assumption that this takes place and have revised down our... 6th March 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Policy stimulus: How much and will it work? China is easing monetary policy and lining up fiscal stimulus measures worth at least 2% of GDP. The impact will be muted as long as the workforce is still facing major disruption. But these measures... 5th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka to keep rates on hold this year The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) left interest rates unchanged today, and while it kept the door open to loosening, high inflation and the CBSL’s concern over the rupee limits the scope for... 5th March 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Feb.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have dropped sharply in February, in large part due to a moderation in food inflation. This should further embolden the RBI to follow its global peers... 5th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policy response from Polish MPC likely to be small With the coronavirus outbreak spreading across Europe and its disruption to economic activity likely to mount, we think that the Polish central bank will ease policy this year. But the tone of the MPC... 4th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Bank to cut interest rates again in April The growing risk of COVID-19 to the outlook suggests that the Bank of Canada will follow today’s 50 bp cut in interest rates with an additional 25 bp cut in April. Given the Governing Council’s... 4th March 2020 · 3 mins read
