India Economic Outlook Slowest growth in four decades Strict containment measures in response to the coronavirus outbreak in India will have severe economic repercussions. We think the economy will grow by just 1% in 2020, which would be the weakest pace... 2nd April 2020 · 13 mins read
RBA Watch RBA may yet have to launch negative rates The recent easing in financial markets suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) won’t announce major decisions at the upcoming meeting on 7th April. Looking further ahead though, the Bank... 2nd April 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile cuts rates, more easing in store Chile’s central bank suggested that, having cut its policy rate to 0.5% yesterday, rates will remain at this low level for an extended period of time. But given the scale of the economic hit from the... 1st April 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q1) While the Q1 Tankan survey held up slightly better than we were expecting, it still showed a marked deterioration in business conditions. And with sentiment set to deteriorate further as lockdowns... 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Are Latin American policymakers doing enough? Policymakers in Peru and Chile have been quick to introduce economic policy and containment measures in response to the coronavirus, but peers elsewhere – particularly in Brazil and Mexico – have made... 31st March 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB may be forced to live with a stronger franc While the SNB clearly favours using FX interventions to weaken the franc at present, persistent concerns about the size of its balance sheet would make it reticent to step in on an ever-greater scale... 30th March 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC moves to keep interbank rates low The People’s Bank (PBOC) has taken another step to loosen monetary conditions by lowering the rate at which it lends to banks. But the central bank’s job isn’t done yet and we anticipate continued... 30th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore: MAS reaching limits of monetary policy The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) loosened policy today by reducing the slope of its policy band, and even though the outlook for growth and inflation is very downbeat, we don’t expect further... 30th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB steps up, EU leaders at loggerheads Evidence is mounting that the slump in euro-zone GDP will be even steeper than the 15% drop that we had anticipated. This will put huge pressure on the public finances. The ECB has at least taken the... 27th March 2020 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB puts its moral hazard worries to the side The virus-related hit to activity appears to be even deeper than the 15% q/q declines in GDP that we tentatively pencilled in a few weeks ago. Data released next week are likely to show that Swiss CPI... 27th March 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Policymakers do their utmost, but some damage already done The UK Chancellor’s support for self-employed workers takes the total size of the government’s package of direct tax and spending measures to £119bn (5.3% of GDP). Even so, this unparalleled policy... 27th March 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update RBI steps up emphatically The RBI has emphatically stepped up its response to the economic and financial market fallout from the coronavirus outbreak with another emergency announcement today. It has also left the door wide... 27th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Locking down New Zealand imposed a draconian lockdown this week and we expect Australia to follow within days. We now expect GDP to plunge by around 30% in both countries in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the RBA... 27th March 2020 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack Labour market conditions continue to worsen Activity across both industry and services is recovering as measures to contain the coronavirus have been eased. But the recovery is likely to run into the constraint of weak demand before long. The... 27th March 2020 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC to step up its policy support The Czech central bank followed up last week’s emergency interest rate cut with further easing today and opened the door to use other measures to support the economy and stabilise the financial system... 26th March 2020 · 3 mins read
