RBA Watch RBA to stay the course The continued easing in financial market tensions suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia won’t announce any major new measures at its meeting on Tuesday, 5th May. And with unemployment set to... 28th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Update Chances of rate cut dwindling The Bank of Japan today scaled up its measures to ease corporate and household financing strains significantly. However, the Board didn’t cut the policy rate even though all members expect a slump in... 27th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank cuts rates, more to follow The Russian central bank abandoned its cautious approach to the coronavirus outbreak by cutting its key policy rate by 50bp, to 5.50%, today and the accompanying communications gave the clearest... 24th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank heading for negative territory While the 1.9% q/q plunge in mainland GDP in Norway in Q1 was slightly smaller than the record seen in 2008, it is an eye-watering decline given that the lockdown did not really begin until 12th March... 24th April 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Fiscal delay, rupee drop, Franklin Templeton A second fiscal stimulus package appears close but, a month after the lockdown started, any further measures now will probably arrive too late to prevent an annual contraction in growth this year... 24th April 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Targeted Medium-term Lending Facility Rate The People’s Bank (PBOC) has cut rates on yet another one of its lending facilities, but the move is more housekeeping than a shift in policy stance. 24th April 2020 · 2 mins read
ECB Watch ECB set to ramp up asset purchases The ECB has ramped up its asset purchases to a record pace, but this still doesn’t look like enough. We think it will expand the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme, and may explore extra measures... 23rd April 2020 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Negative rates to come back on agenda before long Having pulled out all the stops since its last scheduled policy meeting, in February, we suspect that the Riksbank will take stock next week. However, as the focus shifts away from monetary... 23rd April 2020 · 5 mins read
US Fed Watch Surveying the damage With the Fed having already slashed interest rates to zero and unveiled nine new lending programmes in recent weeks, officials will probably use next week’s FOMC meeting to take stock rather than to... 22nd April 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: rates cut again, but lira limits scope for more The Turkish central bank responded to signs of a clear downturn in the economy by cutting interest rates by a further 100bp today but, with downward pressure on the lira continuing to mount, we think... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB will need to increase its bond purchases again The ECB’s record pace of asset purchases is proving insufficient to bring bond spreads down. We think that it will need to step up the pace of purchases further, as well as expand the overall size of... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Shadow banking woes deepen Measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus will increase strains among traditional banks, but the shadow banking sector – still reeling from a large-scale default 18 months ago – is likely to... 22nd April 2020 · 9 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Rate cut more likely than not The Bank of Japan will probably take some additional steps to support funding for corporates at the meeting that concludes next Tuesday. But with output plunging and deflation set to return, we think... 22nd April 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Is the Fed monetising the deficit? The scale of the Fed’s purchases of Treasury securities in the first few weeks of the pandemic, in addition to the sheer size of the broader expansion in its balance sheet, arguably suggests that the... 20th April 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Output to fall the most since Great Depression The restrictions imposed to limit the spread of the coronavirus will result in GDP falling at a double-digit rate in Australia and New Zealand in Q2. While activity will bounce back over the coming... 20th April 2020 · 20 mins read
China Economics Update Banks pass on PBOC rate cut Commercial banks lowered the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) today in response to last week’s policy rate cut. With economic conditions still weak, we expect further rate declines in the coming months. 20th April 2020 · 2 mins read
