RBNZ Watch Holding off on negative rates until 2021 The RBNZ has started to reduce the pace of asset purchases as economic activity has recovered. We think the Bank will not announce any further stimulus measures on Wednesday 24th June. However, we... 18th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile central bank delves into unconventional toolbox The decision by Chile’s central bank to leave its policy interest rate unchanged at 0.50% was accompanied by a statement which appeared to unveil a QE programme. The finer details will be fleshed out... 17th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Fed’s policy actions bode well for risky assets Even if the Fed’s latest decision to tweak its buying of corporate bonds in the secondary market is hard to justify, given the improvement in market conditions over the past few months, it reinforces... 16th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ unlikely to expand lending facilities any further The Bank of Japan today expanded its lending facilities further. The total amount of support for corporate funding is now equivalent to nearly 20% of the debt of non-financial firms and we don’t... 16th June 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to hold rates at near-zero for years There is still huge uncertainty over how quickly activity will recover from the pandemic, but it’s clear that the economy is set for an unprecedented period of near-zero interest rates. 12th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Finding the floor for rates in Latin America Our Taylor Rules suggest that monetary easing cycles have further to run in Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, and we have pencilled in additional interest rate cuts in all three countries. Moreover... 11th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Brace yourself for two boring policy meetings The Swiss National Bank and the Norges Bank are all but certain to leave their policy settings unchanged at the scheduled announcements next Thursday (18th June) and for the foreseeable future. 11th June 2020 · 6 mins read
BoE Watch MPC to keep the printing press fired up all year The Bank of England has much more work to do. It will probably start by announcing £100bn more quantitative easing at the meeting on Thursday 18th June, and we expect additional expansions in QE over... 11th June 2020 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Focus TARGET2 imbalances set to balloon TARGET2 imbalances are set to rise to record levels over the year ahead on the back of the ECB’s planned wave of asset purchases. While this may be dismissed by some as a benign and technical side... 11th June 2020 · 13 mins read
US Economics Update Fed takes first steps to strengthen forward guidance The Fed left its policy stance broadly unchanged at the conclusion of today’s FOMC meeting, but it did strengthen its forward guidance a little – by publishing interest rate projections that show... 10th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank may expand lending programmes further The Bank of Japan has already done a lot to ensure the availability of funding of non-financial firms, but we suspect it may go a little further at the upcoming meeting. 9th June 2020 · 7 mins read
India Economics Update MPC minutes suggest further loosening likely The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s late May policy meeting – in which it trimmed both the repo and reverse repo rates – show that the MPC has become markedly more bearish on the outlook for economic... 8th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB gets the chance to regroup; Norway picking up The positive policy moves out of Europe have weighed on the Swiss franc and has ratcheted down the pressure on the SNB. Meanwhile, Norway’s economy appears to have clawed back about half of what was... 5th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Activity still depressed, policymakers step up support Data published this week added to evidence that economic activity in the euro-zone is slowly resuming after a catastrophic April, but that it remains well below “normal” levels. Against this backdrop... 5th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB meets high expectations for now The ECB’s decision to increase the size and duration of the PEPP should sustain the positive sentiment towards the euro-zone in the near term and reinforce the sense that, for now, European... 4th June 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus Another decade of ultra-loose monetary policy The swift and significant response of the Bank of England to the coronavirus crisis has prevented a financial crisis, but we think the Bank will need to do much more than the markets currently expect... 4th June 2020 · 31 mins read
