Emerging Europe Economics Update What will Poland’s central bank do next? Poland’s central bank appears to have become concerned about the strength of the zloty recently and the negative impact this could have on the pace of the economic recovery, suggesting that it is... 2nd July 2020 · 6 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Lending facilities offering vital support This month has seen a further shift among the world’s major central banks from essential liquidity provision to recovery support, with a focus on uptake of the various lending programmes. The results... 2nd July 2020 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: still room for another few rate cuts The decision by the Colombian central bank to slow the pace of easing from 50bp to 25bp at last night’s meeting suggests that the rate-cutting cycle is approaching its conclusion. We remain... 1st July 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank beefs up monetary stimulus The Riksbank has put its money where its mouth is when it comes to expanding its balance sheet, but in our view all roads still lead to a return to negative interest rates, either in late-2020 or... 1st July 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Economies coming roaring back Restrictions on activity have lifted in both countries. While some states in Australia still limit the size of groups and capacity at restaurants, New Zealand has now lifted all domestic restrictions... 30th June 2020 · 10 mins read
RBA Watch More stimulus needed before long Given that the economy has coped better with the pandemic than the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) had anticipated, the Bank probably won’t provide additional easing over the next few months. However... 30th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (May) The sharp drop in the number of furloughed workers in May supports our view that household incomes will rebound in the second half of the year. And while industrial production plunged again in May, it... 30th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (May) The subdued rise in retail sales in May suggests that the lifting of the state of emergency didn’t provide a big boost to consumption and we reiterate our forecast of a 9% q/q plunge in Q2 GDP. And... 29th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The current burst of bank lending suggests that governments’ loan guarantees and the ECB’s TLTROs are having the desired effects. Now that economies are re-opening, corporate revenues should begin to... 26th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB account addresses German legal dispute The ECB has used the minutes of this month’s policy meeting to try to defuse the dispute in Germany over the legality of its asset purchase programmes. Helped by the Bundesbank, this should be enough... 25th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s central bank closes the door on easing cycle Turkey’s central bank unexpectedly left interest rates on hold today and it’s difficult to see how economic conditions will change in such a way over the coming months to justify renewed easing. We... 25th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: more rate cuts coming The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) today cut its policy rate by a larger-than-expected 50bps, to 2.25%, and with economic activity unlikely to recover fully anytime soon, we expect further... 25th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank set to keep its powder dry next week While we still expect the Riksbank to cut its repo rate back into negative territory later this year, it is set to keep its powder dry at its policy announcement next Wednesday (1st July). 24th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update What will the Bank of Thailand do next? The Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.5% today despite the dire outlook for the economy suggests that further cuts to the policy rate are unlikely. Instead, the... 24th June 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Financial conditions ease but headwinds remain After tightening dramatically in March following the outbreak of the coronavirus, our proprietary index shows that financial conditions in India have eased substantially over the past couple of months... 24th June 2020 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ to go negative in 2021 The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) sounded fairly balanced when it left policy settings unchanged today. But we still think the Bank will cut rates into negative territory next year. 24th June 2020 · 3 mins read
