India Chart Pack Investment will take years to recover If the monthly activity data are anything to go by, GDP data for Q2 (Q1 of FY20/21) due at the end of the month will show that investment slumped by more than 30% y/y. That will prove the bottom given... 19th August 2020 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE still reluctant to cut rates, for now The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept interest rates on hold for a fourth consecutive meeting on Thursday as policymakers remained cautious about delivering more monetary stimulus. That said, with the... 14th August 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Surge in truck sales adds to signs of a robust recovery Firms are adding to their fleets of trucks at the fastest pace in a decade, suggesting that they expect growth in industry to accelerate well above trend in the next few quarters. One near-term prop... 14th August 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to maintain the status quo The Norges Bank will almost certainly leave its key interest rate on hold at zero next Thursday (20th August), and we expect it to reiterate that it is in no rush to tighten policy. 13th August 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB under pressure Growing pressure on South Africa’s Reserve Bank (SARB) to do more to support the economy and finance the government is unlikely to result in a major shift in policymaking over the next year or two... 12th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ is not done loosening yet The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) further expanded its quantitative easing programme at today’s meeting and we think the Bank will cut rates into negative territory next year. 12th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How will policymakers respond to the falling lira? If strains in Turkey’s balance of payments fail to ease, the central bank will probably tighten monetary conditions more aggressively within the interest rate “corridor”. But use of the corridor alone... 10th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Jun.) Wage growth improved a little in June and household incomes are rebounding now that most furloughed workers are back in work. Meanwhile, the surge “core” household spending in June supports our view... 7th August 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update MPC’s words are much more dovish than its numbers The Monetary Policy Committee left its interest rate and quantitative easing policies unchanged today and its new projections appear to suggest that no further loosening is required. But its dovish... 6th August 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI on hold, but more easing to come The only new step taken by the RBI today was the introduction of a new framework to help struggling borrowers manage their bank debt. The MPC voted unanimously to keep the repo and reverse repo rates... 6th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: low rates here to stay The 25bp cut in the Selic rate, to 2.00%, at last night’s Brazilian central bank meeting probably marks the last reduction in the cycle, but the accompanying statement supports our view that rates... 6th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update What next for the Bank of Thailand? The Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.5% despite the very poor outlook for the economy suggests further rate cuts are unlikely. In its statement, the BoT hinted... 5th August 2020 · 3 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ may still cut rates into negative territory The RBNZ has stabilised the pace of asset purchases in recent months and is on track to meet its QE targets. We think the Bank will not announce any further stimulus measures on Wednesday 12th August... 5th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will have to expand asset purchases in earnest The RBA turned more pessimistic about the outlook for the economy when it kept policy settings unchanged today and we think it will engage in additional asset purchases before long. 4th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales & International Trade (Jun./Q2) Retail sales and external trade both rose in the month of June but may weaken again before long as imports begin to normalise and the renewed lockdown in Victoria weighs on retail sales. 4th August 2020 · 3 mins read
BoE Watch MPC may hint more support will be needed We expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to vote unanimously to keep interest rates on hold at +0.10% on Thursday 6th August and to continue with, but not extend, quantitative easing (QE). But... 30th July 2020 · 8 mins read
