UK Economics Update Will the Bank of England change its remit? While the Bank of England might not follow the Fed and change its inflation remit, we doubt this will stop it from significantly loosening policy and from keeping it loose for a very long time. 3rd September 2020 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Aug.) The rise in the August PMIs pales in comparison with the falls during the lockdown and it is highly likely that output is still a very long way from pre-pandemic levels. Given the bleak economic... 3rd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Is Bank Indonesia’s independence under threat? Proposed changes to Bank Indonesia’s mandate, which include a shift to focus more on growth and unemployment, could lead to major changes in how the central bank operates. However, given the country’s... 2nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation close to peaking Ongoing virus-related supply disruptions as well as one-off factors such as phone tariff hikes have kept inflation higher than we had anticipated over recent months. But with food inflation set to... 2nd September 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will the ECB follow the Fed’s lead? The Fed’s switch to an average inflation targeting regime and revised interpretation of its full employment goal are a response to challenges which are common to many economies, including the euro... 1st September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: tourism and tighter policy to hinder recovery The 11% q/q drop in GDP in Turkey in Q2 was smaller than we had expected and we now forecast the economy to slump by 3% this year (previously 5.8%). But the recovery over the coming quarters will be... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - RBA may still attempt to lower long-term yields The RBA today expanded its Term Funding Facility which should contribute to continued strong growth in the money supply. And while it didn’t indicate that additional stimulus is forthcoming, we still... 1st September 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina & the IMF, Banxico’s mixed signals Argentina’s government formally requested talks with the IMF over a new financing deal this week, but the conditions likely to be demanded by the Fund could prove to be a major sticking point... 28th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Flurry of FX action in Nigeria, looming strikes in SA The Central Bank of Nigeria this week took further steps to tighten its oversight over foreign currency transactions and, even if the country’s multiple exchange windows are set to a unified rate, we... 28th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Fragile EU-Turkey relations, MNB in a bind The Turkish central bank's tightening of monetary conditions has helped to stabilise the lira but the further ratcheting up of tensions with the EU and threat of measures beyond sanctions mean that... 28th August 2020 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly QE is coming, tourist reopening pushed back The Bank of Korea this week hinted at further rate cuts and we expect it to also ramp up unconventional policy measures in the coming months. The Bank of Thailand is likely to follow suit – deflation... 28th August 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly OMOs ramped up, lifeline for borrowers The RBI this week announced new open market operations aimed at stabilising long-term bond yields. We think this is a sign of things to come as the authorities aim to keep government borrowing costs... 28th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Long Run Update Fed adopts average inflation target Chair Jerome Powell announced this morning that the Fed will be adopting what he described as a “flexible form of average inflation targeting”, which we expect will trigger additional policy stimulus... 27th August 2020 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Recent stimulus has set back domestic rebalancing The consumption share of GDP had edged up in recent years, but that progress has been reversed by the COVID-19 stimulus response, which has focused on boosting investment. The consumption share should... 27th August 2020 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (July) Broad money growth accelerated to a 12-year high in July, but we think that this will prove to be temporary and is not likely to push up inflation. Meanwhile, growth in bank lending to firms has... 27th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Lockdown fatigue is making restrictions less effective In Australia, the lockdown in Melbourne in July was of similar intensity to the initial lockdown in April. Even so, retail sales only fell by 2% m/m in Victoria which still left them around 2% above... 27th August 2020 · 11 mins read
