Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Indefinite lockdown will hamper rebound The lockdown in Melbourne will be extended into Q4 and only lifted if virus cases are brought down sharply. With retail stores set to remain closed until at least late October the weakness in... 11th September 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lagarde dashes hopes of early addition to stimulus While no policy change was expected today, President Lagarde used the press conference to convey a slightly less gloomy message about the economy. She also dampened expectations for an early increase... 10th September 2020 · 3 mins read
BoE Watch When the fog clears more stimulus will be required The initial recovery has been encouraging, but the downside risks remain. We think much more support will eventually be needed in the form of a further £250bn of QE in total (the consensus is £100bn... 10th September 2020 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Stronger recovery to keep BCC on the side-lines Chile’s economy is recovering more quickly than we had previously expected and, as a result, we are revising up our 2020 GDP growth forecast to -5.5% (previously -7.0%). The stronger rebound has eased... 10th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB probably not too worried about the euro While the euro’s recent appreciation has generated a lot of attention, it is in fact close to its historical average by most measures. So while ECB policymakers may note at today’s press conference... 10th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s central bank to resume easing soon Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its main policy rate on hold at 1.75% today, but with the economy likely to remain weak for some time to come, we doubt this marks the end of the Bank’s easing cycle. 10th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) Brazilian inflation remained well below the central bank’s target last month, at 2.4% y/y, confirming that price pressures are soft and supporting our view that the Selic rate will stay low for a long... 9th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM easing cycles: revisiting lessons from the GFC The experience of the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) chimes with our EM rates view on two counts. The first is that easing cycles in many EMs are now at an end (Brazil) or will draw to... 9th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Rate cuts still a remote scenario The Bank of Japan will leave policy settings unchanged at the upcoming meeting. And while the frontrunner to be the country’s next prime minister has indicated that he sees scope for further stimulus... 9th September 2020 · 8 mins read
India Economics Update What next for government borrowing costs? The use of traditional monetary policy tools alongside financial repression will keep government borrowing costs in India in check over the coming years. That should help to ensure that only modest... 9th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jul.) & GDP (Q2 Revised) Wage growth improved in July and household incomes are likely to rebound further as more workers who lost their jobs during the state of emergency find employment again. Meanwhile, the second estimate... 8th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly A PMI puzzle, Brazil’s GDP oddities & budget A string of eye-catching economic data releases this week has fuelled yet more optimism about the strength of Brazil’s recovery. But digging into the details suggests that there may be less to some of... 4th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Slow recovery in the Philippines, Taiwan-US FTA A long and strict lockdown meant the Philippines suffered one of the biggest falls in GDP in the region in the second quarter. The most recent data suggest that it is also experiencing one of the... 4th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Withdrawal of policy support a headwind to activity With a record plunge in output, Australia entered its first recession in 29 years last quarter. Huge public support payments resulted in an increase in both corporate profits and household income and... 4th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Jul.) Retail sales were 12% above pre-virus levels in July but the closure of non-essential shops in Victoria will weigh heavily on spending in August. That means that sales won’t rise all that much in Q3... 4th September 2020 · 2 mins read
ECB Watch Growth slowdown, virus rebound to keep ECB dovish The ECB will not make any major policy changes at next week’s Governing Council meeting, but President Lagarde will emphasise that policymakers expect to use the current €1.35trn PEPP envelope in full... 3rd September 2020 · 7 mins read
