Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) While headline inflation fell in August, excluding the government’s domestic travel subsidy scheme it showed a renewed pick up. However, we still think inflation will fall much further into negative... 18th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Risk of inflation lower in the euro-zone than elsewhere If it is sustained for long enough, the policy stimulus being implemented in the euro-zone could eventually cause inflation to take off. However, we think it is more likely that policy is normalised... 17th September 2020 · 18 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB easing cycle probably over, rates to stay low Today’s decision by South African Reserve Bank’s to keep its benchmark rate unchanged probably means that further easing is unlikely to materialise. Even so, monetary conditions are likely to remain... 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan policy rate set for an extended hold With the economy holding up relatively well, the decision by Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) to leave interest rates on hold came as no surprise. Further rate cuts are unlikely, and we expect interest... 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Selic rate to stay low for longer than most expect The dovish tone of the Brazilian central bank’s statement from yesterday’s meeting (at which the Selic rate was left at 2.00%) supports our view that the policy rate will remain at its current... 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ will keep policy unchanged The Bank of Japan’s decision to keep policy settings unchanged today didn’t come as a surprise and we don’t expect incoming PM Suga to push the Bank into policy rate cuts. 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ preparing to launch negative rates The RBNZ is reaching the limits of its asset purchase program. We therefore doubt the Bank will make any significant policy changes at its meeting on Wednesday 23 rd September. Even so, the economy... 17th September 2020 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Fed to keep rates at near-zero until 2023 and beyond The FOMC’s updated economic and rate projections show that officials expect to leave the fed funds rate at near-zero until at least 2023 and probably well beyond that. With the five-year Treasury... 16th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to keep policy settings on hold next week After a tweak-laden last policy meeting, the Riksbank is likely to maintain the status quo next Tuesday (22nd September). While there is no burning platform for policy change, we think that the next... 15th September 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Aug.) The increase in Nigerian inflation in August, to 13.2% y/y, will probably stay the hand of policymakers at next week’s MPC meeting. But, with a weak economic recovery, there may still be scope for an... 15th September 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Aug.) Economic growth in China accelerated further in August as sentiment improved among consumers and private firms. Retail sales surpassed 2019 levels for the first time since the COVID-19 outbreak, while... 15th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Australia - Lessons from Australia’s average inflation targeting Inflation has been close to the midpoint of the RBA’s 2-3% inflation target since its launch in the 1990s, but this has come at the expense of soaring house prices and household debt. Australia’s... 15th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Remote working poses significant downside to rents As we have argued in our Global Property Focus, we think that some of the increase in remote working seen this year will become a permanent feature of working practices in office-based sectors in the... 14th September 2020 · 17 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s Federative Pact, assessing the MXN rally Brazil’s congress will reportedly receive a plan for the Federative Pact reform next week, which would ease concerns about the public finances. But we don’t think worries that the government might... 11th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South African economy stumbles, oil price falls Q2 GDP figures released in South Africa this week weren’t quite as ugly as we had feared, which has prompted us to revise up our full year growth forecast (to -8.5% from -11.0%). Even so, the country... 11th September 2020 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Second wave fears ease as infections fall The recent jump in coronavirus cases in Korea, Hong Kong and Vietnam had a negative impact on each economy, with hospitality sectors bearing the brunt of the damage. But with infection numbers now... 11th September 2020 · 6 mins read
