RBA Watch Australia - RBA to cut rates and launch more QE The Reserve Bank of Australia has become more downbeat about the prospects for inflation and wage growth. While it could wait until November, we think it will announce further interest rate cuts and... 29th September 2020 · 7 mins read
China Chart Pack Policymakers refocus on property developer debt The speed at which officials in China have pivoted from crisis response to another round of restrictions on property developers has caught many by surprise. Developers might have hoped that they would... 28th September 2020 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Tightening in Hungary and Turkey, Poland’s ‘fur crisis’ Concerns about currency falls and the inflation outlook prompted central banks in Hungary and Turkey to raise interest rates this week but while we think this will ultimately be reversed in Hungary... 25th September 2020 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: weak recovery, new currency forecasts Inadequate fiscal support is holding back growth in the Philippines and, unless this improves, the recovery will continue to underwhelm. Meanwhile, despite the recent sell-off in EM currency markets... 25th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE likely to continue with gradual monetary easing The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) cut interest rates by 50bps at Thursday’s MPC meeting after a six month pause to the loosening cycle. Policymakers are likely to remain cautious about future easing... 25th September 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Government bonds to rally in the coming years FTSE Russell yesterday announced that it will include China in its World Government Bond Index (WGBI). The resulting shift in passive funds could more than double foreign inflows into Chinese... 25th September 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will cut rates and step up QE in October Recent data from Victoria show that the second lockdown has not curbed activity as much as we had anticipated. We are therefore revising up our Q3 GDP forecast. Even so, the economic outlook remains... 25th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Australia - Lessons from second virus waves The experience from second virus waves in Australia, New Zealand and Japan is that consumer spending falls even if governments don’t impose major restrictions. However, there are three key reasons why... 25th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Recovery now in a tougher phase After an initial burst of growth following the lifting of national lockdowns, the latest activity data and mobility indicators point to a slower pace of recovery in most EMs in recent months. This... 24th September 2020 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT clawing back credibility The Turkish central bank’s (CBRT’s) decision to hike its policy rates by 200bp today is a response to the recent lira weakness, and should help to restore the Bank’s battered credibility. The move... 24th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB likely to cut interest rates on TLTROs again Some policymakers at the ECB have hinted recently that further policy loosening could be on the way. There is little to be gained from announcing an expansion to QE at this stage, but we wouldn’t be... 24th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB & Norges Bank cook up no change, two ways The fact that policymakers at the SNB and the Norges Bank left policy settings unchanged this morning came as no surprise. Both banks are likely to leave policy unchanged throughout our forecast... 24th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Rising cases threaten the recovery in Central Europe The speed and size of the rise in new coronavirus cases in parts of Central and Eastern Europe is now starting to challenge our optimism about the strength of the recovery. The Czech Republic, Hungary... 24th September 2020 · 16 mins read
India Chart Pack Services “outperformance” unlikely to last In contrast to many other economies, the 20% y/y slump in India’s services sector in Q2 was less pronounced than that in industry, which collapsed by almost 40% y/y. But we doubt that the... 24th September 2020 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Update Too soon to call an end to Asia’s easing cycle Asian central banks have taken their foot off the gas in recent months – no central bank in the region has cut rates since July. But we think this represents a pause rather than an end to the easing... 24th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira to fall further as policy response fails to appease The Turkish lira has continued to weaken in recent weeks and, with the response by policymakers likely to fail to placate investors, we now expect the currency to fall to as low as 9.25/$ by the end... 23rd September 2020 · 4 mins read
