India Economics Update Further easing still likely as new MPC takes shape After dragging its heels for several weeks, the government has finally appointed three new members to the RBI’s monetary policy committee (MPC). Not a great deal is known about their views on monetary... 6th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Bank to announce more easing in November The RBA kept policy settings unchanged today but signaled that more stimulus is forthcoming. We now expect the Bank to cut the cash rate target, the 3-year yield target and the interest rate on the... 6th October 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Consumers misery is largely justified Consumers appear to be much more miserable than the economic fundamentals would imply. But the prospect of a second wave of unemployment and the risk of future lockdowns are not captured well by the... 5th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Geopolitical tensions in Turkey, tighter restrictions in CEE The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh has opened up another schism between Turkey, the EU and Russia and there is a major risk that an escalation of tensions could trigger sharp falls in the lira and push... 2nd October 2020 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia in no rush to tighten, Vietnam rate cut Indonesia has signalled that fiscal policy will remain supportive of the economic recovery after it unveiled a budget for next year that envisages only a very small fall in the budget deficit... 2nd October 2020 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Our thoughts on the MPC shambles The last-minute postponement of the RBI's policy meeting scheduled for this week is because of the failure to find replacements for the three external MPC members whose terms ended after the last... 2nd October 2020 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Holiday spending boon, property developer caution Holiday spending during China’s ongoing “Golden Week” should ease concerns that lacklustre consumption will cause the economic recovery to stall. The property sector remains, in our view, a bigger... 2nd October 2020 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: more rate cuts after “continued pause” The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate on hold at 2.25% today for a second consecutive meeting, but with the economic recovery proving to be one of the slowest in the... 1st October 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economic Outlook Dire outlook will prompt further monetary easing The continued rapid spread of COVID-19 in India and the need for prolonged containment measures has plunged the economy into a double-digit contraction this year. A tepid fiscal response means the... 1st October 2020 · 19 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Light at the end of the tunnel? The latest figures suggest that the number of COVID-19 infections in the region has passed its peak – new cases are down by 35-60% compared to their July/August peaks in most of the large Latin... 30th September 2020 · 14 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug.) The slight fall in South African inflation, to 3.1% y/y in August, is likely to be followed by subdued inflation rates over the next few months. Even so, the SARB’s easing cycle has now come to an end... 30th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Victoria restrictions didn’t hit as hard as initially feared The surge in case numbers due to the second wave in Melbourne has been brought under control with new daily cases falling back towards zero. Heavy restrictions on activity still remain in place in... 30th September 2020 · 10 mins read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Aug.) Retail sales rebounded back to pre-virus levels in August as the second wave began to dissipate, and we expect consumer spending to recover further over the coming months. Meanwhile, industrial... 30th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Encouraging signs in Korea Korea looks to have contained its “second wave” of the virus with minimum cost to the economy. There were just 38 newly confirmed cases in Korea today, which was the lowest since early August and down... 29th September 2020 · 13 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Growth concerns mounting in Nigeria Nigeria is facing an uphill battle to breathe life into its economic recovery. Following a sharp 6.1% y/y fall in GDP in Q2, more recent figures suggest that activity remains muted. Admittedly, Google... 29th September 2020 · 13 mins read
RBA Watch Australia - RBA to cut rates and launch more QE The Reserve Bank of Australia has become more downbeat about the prospects for inflation and wage growth. While it could wait until November, we think it will announce further interest rate cuts and... 29th September 2020 · 7 mins read
