Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q3, Advanced), MAS Decision The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) left policy on hold today as advanced GDP data showed that the economy rebounded well in Q3. However, with GDP still well below its pre-crisis level, the MAS... 14th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Could the crisis lead to higher EM inflation? Large output gaps look set to keep inflation low in most emerging markets over the next few years. But further out, we think that worrying public debt trajectories in some places (Brazil and South... 13th October 2020 · 15 mins read
Asia Economics Update Further rate cuts likely in Indonesia Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates on hold at 4.0% today, but it is too soon to call an end to the easing cycle. With the economy in need of further support, we think the central bank will resume... 13th October 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economic Outlook Recovery broadening out China has become the first major economy to return to its pre-virus growth path, thanks to its rapid containment of COVID-19 and effective stimulus response. The rebound initially leaned heavily on... 12th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update The SARB’s next steps: lessons from the GFC The post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC) experience suggests that the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is unlikely to raise the repo rate within our near-term forecast horizon (to end-2022). Investors... 12th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Rising labour costs to prevent slump in inflation Inflation has held up better than we had anticipated in recent months. The surge in spare capacity suggests that it could weaken more sharply as social distancing measures are relaxed. But we only... 12th October 2020 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly IMF visits, fiscal space & protests It looks like the Mexican government will ignore the IMF’s advice this week that it should ramp up spending, adding to reasons to expect a weak recovery there. Brazil’s government, in contrast... 9th October 2020 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Households spending more, RMB gains to continue Consumer spending continued to strengthen during the Golden Week holiday, helping to dispel some concerns about the lopsided nature of China’s recovery and providing a further tailwind today to the... 9th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam in US cross hairs Vietnam has so far emerged as the biggest winner of the US-China trade war, as tariffs on goods from China have led US importers to switch suppliers. Vietnam’s exports to the US have doubled since the... 9th October 2020 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Fiscal stimulus now, monetary stimulus in November This week’s Australian Budget injected another huge dose of fiscal stimulus. Some of the measures may not be quite as effective as those in earlier rounds of stimulus but taken together Australia’s... 9th October 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s easing cycle is not over yet It came as no surprise that the new MPC voted unanimously to keep the repo and reverse repo rates on hold today. But the relatively dovish tone of the statement, along with the dire growth outlook... 9th October 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Over the worst? This week has brought some much-needed good news for India’s beleaguered economy. Activity data for September released over the past few days have been encouraging, while there has been a further drop... 9th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB account suggests no rush to boost the PEPP The account of the last ECB Governing Council meeting suggests that policymakers were in no hurry to increase the size of the PEPP. There has been more disappointing news on the economy since then... 8th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Nordics offer salutary tales for harder-hit economies The further slowdowns in monthly GDP growth in Norway and Sweden in August support our view that it will take a long time for output to recover to pre-crisis trend levels anywhere in Europe. 8th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Central banks to resume easing cycles soon With the virus under control in most of the region, Emerging Asia is bouncing back from the crisis faster than other parts of the world. But the pace of recovery is uneven. China is leading the way... 8th October 2020 · 36 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Recovery could surprise to the upside Japan’s success in containing the virus without imposing draconian restrictions on activity should enable a faster return to pre-virus levels of output than in many major economies. We expect GDP to... 8th October 2020 · 21 mins read
