Emerging Europe Economics Update Erdogan hints at orthodox shift, up to CBRT to deliver President Erdogan’s latest comments suggest that the recent changes in Turkey’s economic management team may herald a shift back to orthodox policymaking. If these developments are backed up by a... 12th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Vaccine hopes brighten economic outlook A vaccine wouldn’t have a large impact on domestic demand in New Zealand as the virus has been almost eradicated, but it would allow Australia to reopen its services sector at a faster pace. However... 12th November 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update Bank of England won’t push back against higher gilt yields The Bank of England won’t be worried by the recent jump in gilt yields given that it has been triggered by the growing possibility of a COVID-19 vaccine improving the economic outlook. As such, we... 11th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Bank of England not out of QE firepower There have been some concerns that as well as there being little scope to generate stimulus through interest rate cuts, the Bank of England is now reaching its limits on Quantitative Easing (QE). But... 11th November 2020 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Bank of England not out of QE firepower There have been some concerns that as well as there being little scope to generate stimulus through interest rate cuts, the Bank of England is now reaching its limits on Quantitative Easing (QE). But... 11th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ still likely to implement negative rates The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) decision to implement a funding for lending programme in December should provide some further stimulus on its own and is another step towards implementing... 11th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Economy Watchers Survey (Oct.) The further surge in the Economy Watcher’s Survey (EWS) in October suggests that Q4 could surprise to the upside. However, further ahead the recovery will slow as the economy gets closer to pre-virus... 10th November 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct.) Headline consumer price inflation fell sharply in October, to its lowest since 2009. But this was almost entirely due to falling food prices – core inflation and factory gate inflation held steady... 10th November 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Lockdown and Brexit make for a bumpy Christmas The UK is facing up to the possibility of a festive period dominated by COVID-19 restrictions and Brexit. We think that the England-wide lockdown will shrink the economy by 8% m/m in November and that... 9th November 2020 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Consumption to drive above-consensus recovery While card transaction data have overstated the health of consumer spending in recent years, we suspect they didn’t do so recently. As such, we’re willing to take the jump in transaction amounts in Q3... 9th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly China threat to trade is growing Exports to China haven't fallen as much as those to other parts of the word despite mounting trade tensions. China has so far kept disruptions to trade to smaller export categories. But with reports... 6th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Rebound continues, winter third wave? The surge in car sales last month brought further evidence that the economy has continued to rebound over the autumn months. Admittedly, a recent spike in coronavirus cases in Hokkaido – which proved... 6th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Sep.) Wage growth improved in September and should recover further over the coming months as overtime hours continue to rebound – besides a hit from a fall in end-of-year bonus payments. Meanwhile, the rise... 6th November 2020 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed stands pat amid election uncertainty With the markets still relatively calm amid the ongoing election uncertainty, the Fed took the predictable decision to stand pat today. However, if the election results in a divided government – as... 5th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack New lockdowns weighing on activity and inflation Euro-zone economic activity looks set to slow sharply again in November and to remain weak for a while beyond that. The number of patients in intensive care units is rising rapidly and we suspect that... 5th November 2020 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Update Our new forecasts in full This UK Economics Update contains full details of our new economic and financial market forecasts if there is a Brexit deal and for two different kinds of no deal Brexit. It also highlights that... 5th November 2020 · 5 mins read
