Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.) Turkey’s headline inflation rate jumped to a stronger-than-expected 14.0% y/y in November and, while the lira has rallied strongly over the past month and the economy looks set to suffer a fresh... 3rd December 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Chances of an ECB deposit rate cut look slim The ECB has said it is prepared to reduce its deposit rate further below zero. However, since any economic benefits would be small and it would be politically unpalatable to some on the Governing... 1st December 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - QE may not be extended in April The RBA still sounded cautious when it left policy settings unchanged today. But if our more optimistic forecasts for GDP growth and inflation are realised, the Bank may not decide to expand QE in... 1st December 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Sharp recovery means negative rates now unlikely New Zealand is likely to be one of the few countries where output had recovered to pre-virus levels in Q3. Taken together with the recent positive news on the vaccine, we no longer expect the RBNZ to... 30th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Labour markets prove resilient We have been arguing for some time that the unemployment rate would not rise as much as most believed in either Australia or New Zealand. We remain confident in those forecasts. Admittedly, the... 30th November 2020 · 11 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan acknowledges costs of negative rates The Bank of Japan’s new special deposit facility won’t lift the profitability of struggling banks meaningfully, nor should it result in a rise in money market rates. However, it is another sign that... 30th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Vaccines inject optimism into our forecasts COVID-19 vaccines are a gamechanger for our economic forecasts and mean that we now think that by the middle of the decade the economy won’t be much smaller than if the COVID-19 crisis had never... 27th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Rebounding house prices lower need for policy easing House prices in New Zealand are 20% higher than a year ago and look poised to surge in Australia. New Zealand’s central bank is already under pressure to respond to rapid house price inflation and we... 27th November 2020 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Surging portfolio inflows, Q3 GDP, RBI meeting Foreign portfolio inflows into Indian markets, particularly into equities, have surged in November and we think they will remain robust over the coming months. Looking ahead, we agree with market and... 27th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB account points to December package The account of the last ECB Governing Council meeting confirms that policymakers were becoming more concerned about the outlook for both inflation and GDP growth in late October and that they were... 26th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank gets ahead of the curve The announcement this morning by the Riksbank that it has left the repo rate on hold at zero was never in doubt, and positive news on the vaccine front means that we no longer expect it to cut back... 26th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Lending growth is likely to pick up in the final two months of the year as firms again take advantage of loan guarantees to replace lost revenues during lockdowns. And the ECB looks set to support... 26th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea set for extended hold The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its main policy rate on hold at 0.50% in a unanimous decision, and with the economy set to rebound further in spite of a growing third wave of the coronavirus, further... 26th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Vaccines won’t preclude looser policy The encouraging news about vaccines has led us to expect most restrictions in advanced economies to be removed by Q2 next year, allowing them to embark on steeper recoveries towards their pre-virus... 25th November 2020 · 15 mins read
Europe Economics Update How will the ECB “recalibrate” the PEPP? The ECB looks set to announce an increase in the size of its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme in December and to extend the time for which it pledges to make net purchases and reinvestments. 25th November 2020 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Retail and office pricing still unattractive Property valuations improved for the seventh consecutive quarter in Q3, following another sharp fall in equities earnings yields. But this was the smallest rise in valuation scores this year and... 24th November 2020 · 6 mins read
