Bank of Japan Watch Bank unlikely to ease more in response to virus wave The Bank of Japan is unlikely to respond to the worsening virus outbreak with additional stimulus. However, policymakers may provide some hints at the upcoming meeting about what to expect from the... 14th January 2021 · 8 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to remain on hold as it upgrades its forecasts The Bank of Canada is set to upgrade its growth forecasts next week, despite the deterioration of the near-term outlook, so speculation that it might cut interest rates looks overdone. 13th January 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Vaccines won’t prevent a weak start to the year While the economic fallout will not be as severe as it was with the first lockdowns, the surge in virus cases will weigh on activity in Q1. Vaccine rollouts should provide a boost to the global... 12th January 2021 · 14 mins read
India Economic Outlook On the road to recovery The drop in new COVID-19 cases and the resulting scaling back of containment measures in India has provided a much-needed boost to the economy, and an effective vaccine will further support the... 11th January 2021 · 18 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) Headline inflation returned to positive territory last month as the drag from pork prices eased. Broader price pressures also edged up on the back of stronger demand. With underlying inflation likely... 11th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily The economy, monetary policy and the S&P 500’s valuation We doubt that the valuation of the S&P 500 will prevent it from making further gains over the next few years. After all, big falls in its valuation usually have their roots in either a weakening US... 8th January 2021 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Virus disruptions linger but vaccines deliver This week’s lockdown of Shijiazhuang, a city of 11 million, is a reminder that sporadic flare-ups of COVID-19 are still imposing an economic cost on China. Domestic passenger travel in particular... 8th January 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Second wave delays the recovery The extension of lockdowns has dashed hopes of an early rebound in economic activity. Instead, the economy is likely to contract in the first quarter of this year. After falling quite steeply at the... 7th January 2021 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Update Bank may not be able to use negative rates until H2 2021 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Bank may not be able to use negative rates until H2 2021 The Bank of England may not be ready to use negative interest rates until H2 2021. And by then, COVID-19 restrictions might be easing and the economy could be growing rapidly. In any case, if the Bank... 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The lockdowns implemented at the end of last year did not lead to another surge in bank lending, probably because they were less strict and more focused on limiting social activity. But if lockdowns... 5th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.) House prices continue to rise strongly in Australia and we now think they will rise by 10% between the end of 2020 and the start of 2021. 4th January 2021 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Cautious optimism as 2020 ends COVID-19 has ravaged India’s economy in 2020, and GDP is all but certain to have suffered its largest slump on record this year. But there are reasons for optimism as the year draws to a close... 23rd December 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Update Severe COVID-19 restrictions raise chance of double-dip The new Tier 4 COVID-19 restrictions, which closely resemble November’s lockdown, raise the chances that the economy stagnates, if not contracts, in the first three months of 2021. If the economy is... 21st December 2020 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update CEWC sets more hawkish tone on monetary policy Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. But with China’s leadership eyeing a gradual withdrawal of policy support, we think the PBOC will start to hike its policy rates next... 21st December 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Review probably won’t result in major policy changes The Bank of Japan’s decision today to extend its emergency loan facility by six months didn’t come as a surprise. The announcement that the Bank would soon conduct an assessment of its easing strategy... 18th December 2020 · 3 mins read
