Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Dec.) The further decline in the unemployment rate in December is consistent with our view that the RBA will not extend its asset purchases beyond April. 21st January 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank hints at QE taper this year The main change to the Bank of Canada’s policy statement today was a signal that the pace of its bond purchases will be reduced as the Governing Council gains confidence in the strength of the... 20th January 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) The surge in narrow money growth is entirely due to regulatory changes and a substitution out of savings accounts due to low interest rates. Our measure of M3 shows broad money growth has slowed... 20th January 2021 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Taper talk premature Aside from acknowledging the weakness in the incoming economic data in the policy statement, we expect the Fed to leave its policy settings unchanged at next week’s FOMC meeting. The additional fiscal... 20th January 2021 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s central bank still likely to ease Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) left its main policy rate on hold at 1.75% today, but with the country once again in lockdown following a surge in COVID-19 cases, we think that the Bank will eventually be... 20th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Falling virus cases an upside risk this quarter Our forecast for a 1.5% q/q fall in consumption in Q1 rests on the assumption that some businesses in virus hotspots will be forced to close in order to contain Japan’s most severe wave of the... 20th January 2021 · 10 mins read
China Economics Update LPR on hold for now but likely to end 2021 higher Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold today. But with monetary conditions already being tightened in practice and underlying inflation set to rebound, we think it is still likely... 20th January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economic Outlook Vaccines and stimulus to boost recovery With additional large-scale fiscal stimulus likely to offset the near-term drag on activity stemming from the surge in COVID-19 cases – and the vaccination effort likely to reach critical mass by mid... 19th January 2021 · 24 mins read
UK Economic Outlook A faster and fuller recovery within sight Our view that the economy will return to its pre-pandemic size in Q1 2022 and that it won’t be permanently smaller due to the pandemic is a more optimistic take than that of most forecasters. It... 19th January 2021 · 26 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Surge in growth will allow central banks to step back The recovery in GDP and employment in both Australia and New Zealand is set to continue surprising to the upside. As such, we expect the RBA to stop its QE programme in April. Meanwhile, we estimate... 18th January 2021 · 24 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Rate cut more likely than not in Denmark Another week another set of data which add to the signs that Norway’s and Sweden’s economies ended Q4 on a decent note and outperformed even the best-performing major euro-zone economies in 2020... 15th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea set for extended hold The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its main policy rate on hold at 0.50% today in a unanimous decision, and with signs that the latest virus outbreak is coming under control, further rate cuts seem unlikely... 15th January 2021 · 3 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to leave policy settings unchanged Having adjusted their policy settings in December, policymakers will be happy to sit out the meeting next week and repeat the mantra that they will do whatever is required to support the euro-zone... 14th January 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Vaccines to drive strong recovery this year and next Despite a rockier start to 2021 than we previously anticipated, we continue to expect the economy to recover strongly from the second quarter onwards, as the vaccine rollout allows restrictions to be... 14th January 2021 · 20 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank eyeing tighter macroprudential policy The Norges Bank will almost certainly leave its key interest rate on hold at zero next Thursday, but there is an outside chance that it could start to re-tighten macroprudential policy to tame the... 14th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank unlikely to ease more in response to virus wave The Bank of Japan is unlikely to respond to the worsening virus outbreak with additional stimulus. However, policymakers may provide some hints at the upcoming meeting about what to expect from the... 14th January 2021 · 8 mins read
