China Economics Weekly PBOC window guidance, census data gems The People’s Bank (PBOC) has struck a dovish tone in its recent public statements, parroting calls by China’s leadership for lower real lending rates. But media reports suggest that the PBOC is taking... 9th April 2021 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly QE or not QE isn’t really the question The RBI's new bond purchase programme announced this week has led to comparisons with quantitative easing (QE), but there appears to be some subtle differences. In truth however, it matters little... 9th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Increase in ECB QE underwhelming so far The account of March’s ECB meeting showed that the decision to increase asset purchases was agreed by all members, but that some were reluctant to do much more. In practice, purchases haven’t risen... 8th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Some market implications of central banks going “green” In recent years, and particularly since the start of the pandemic, the pressure on central banks to address climate change has increased. This Update considers the potential implications for financial... 8th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: capital controls would probably be ineffective Turkey’s large external vulnerabilities mean that aggressive rate cuts by the central bank (CBRT) would run the risk of sharp and destabilising falls in the lira. A probable next step by policymakers... 8th April 2021 · 4 mins read
RBNZ Watch Subdued data won’t faze the Bank New Zealand has probably experienced a second technical recession over the past couple of quarters. Even so, the labour market continues to recover and inflation is in good shape. So the Bank shouldn... 7th April 2021 · 7 mins read
India Economics Update RBI will keep policy loose for a long while yet The MPC voted to keep the repo and reverse repo rates on hold today amid the surge in COVID-19 cases, and committed to keeping policy “accommodative to support and nurture the recovery”. Given this... 7th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Dovish RBA to expand QE by another $100bn in June The Reserve Bank of Australia stuck to its dovish stance despite the strength in recent data so we reiterate our view that it will expand its bond purchase program by another $100bn in June. 6th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Booming housing & labour markets The RBA and APRA seem to be washing their hands of responsibility for skyrocketing house prices. But we think the likely surge in credit growth in the months ahead means that APRA will be forced to... 1st April 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: lessons from previous easing cycles Past experience suggests that, with inflation near a peak and the economy slowing (alongside pressure from President Erdogan for lower interest rates), Turkey’s central bank will push ahead and ease... 31st March 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The Fed’s asset purchases are fuelling a continued surge in the narrow money aggregates, but growth in both our M3 measure of broad money and bank lending remain on a downward trend. 30th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asian central banks in no rush to raise interest rates Unlike in some emerging markets, central banks across Emerging Asia are in no rush to tighten monetary policy. External factors won’t compel policymakers to tighten, and with inflationary pressures... 30th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Central bank mission creep There have been several cases of central bank mission creep in recent months, with policy remits widening to cover areas other than consumer price inflation. The Bank of England is now helping to... 29th March 2021 · 15 mins read
RBI Watch RBI unlikely to follow its EM peers EM monetary policy has turned decidedly more hawkish in recent weeks. But, with a renewed surge COVID-19 infections a downside risk to India’s recovery, we don’t think the Reserve Bank will be joining... 29th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lessons from the latest EM rate decisions The raft of EM central bank decisions over the last couple of weeks suggests that the door has largely closed on further rate cuts and that the balance will shift (slightly) towards hikes over the... 26th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico begins a long pause The unanimous decision by Banxico’s Board to keep its policy rate at 4.00% is a clear signal that its easing cycle is done and dusted. While this indicates a cautious shift at the central bank, we... 26th March 2021 · 3 mins read
