Asia Economics Focus Rate hikes coming in Korea as recovery gathers momentum With the economy rebounding strongly from the crisis, the Bank of Korea (BoK) is starting to shift its attention away from supporting growth and towards containing financial risks. We expect the BoK... 31st May 2021 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico sets a high bar for hikes, new virus worries The minutes to Banxico’s latest meeting revealed that Board members are becoming more wary about the outlook for inflation, but we think that there is a high bar for a tightening cycle to begin... 28th May 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC’s turn to target currency manipulators After regulators last week pledged to root speculators out from the domestic commodity market, this week it was the turn of the People’s Bank to tackle manipulation in the currency market, which it... 28th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia’s recovery set back, RBNZ signals rate hikes The outbreak of the Indian virus variant in Victoria this week highlights the risks from the slow vaccine roll-out. Despite strong investment figures for Q1, we are sticking to our forecast that the... 28th May 2021 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Activity bottoming out The continued drop in new virus cases has coincided with a bottoming out in some of the real-time activity data, and the evidence from last year suggests that activity could bounce back rapidly when... 28th May 2021 · 5 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We think EM equities will rise, not shine We forecast that emerging market (EM) equities will make further gains between now and end-2022 as the global economy recovers further. However, they have lost a bit of ground to developed market (DM)... 27th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation risks build, central banks start to react The strength of inflation and expectations for a strong economic recovery have prompted a clear hawkish shift among Central European central banks. We think it will take time for a majority in favour... 27th May 2021 · 15 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank and Riksbank won’t wait for the ECB The Norges Bank has a history of beginning to tighten policy earlier than the ECB and we think it will follow that pattern again this year. Meanwhile, although it’s not the most likely scenario, we... 27th May 2021 · 4 mins read
RBI Watch Policy to remain loose for a long time yet We agree with financial markets and the analyst consensus that policy rates will be left on hold at the conclusion of the RBI’s upcoming MPC meeting on 4 th June, particularly given that the worst of... 27th May 2021 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea unlikely to alter policy soon The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its main policy rate on hold at 0.50% today and given that the recovery still has a way to go, the BoK is likely to leave policy accommodative for at least the next few... 27th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think 10-year yields will rise gradually in most cases While the RBNZ is gearing up to hiking rates next year, we think that most developed market (DM) central banks will look through temporary rises in inflation and leave rates unchanged until early 2023... 26th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ signals policy tightening next year The Reserve Bank of New Zealand sounded more optimistic at today’s meeting and signalled that it will start to hike rates in the second half of next year, in line with our long-standing forecast. If... 26th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update CBN keeps inflation-fighting tools on the shelf Policymakers in Nigeria kept their benchmark rate on hold at 11.50% at today’s MPC meeting, opting to emphasise the fragile nature of the economic recovery over elevated inflation. With price... 25th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: rates to remain low for some time to come Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates unchanged at 3.5% today and signalled that it was in no rush to adjust its monetary policy settings again this year. We expect interest rates to remain low to... 25th May 2021 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to extend QE in July The Reserve Bank of Australia will still sound dovish at the upcoming meeting on 1 st June, paving the way for an extension of its bond purchase programme at the July meeting. But amidst early signs... 25th May 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily The stock market rotation may have further to run Even if, as we suspect, the outperformance of the energy and materials sectors soon comes to an end, we expect the broader rotation in equity markets to continue over the next few years. 24th May 2021 · 6 mins read
