Canada Economics Update Bank likely to taper purchases again in July The Bank did not provide any new hints about the direction of policy in its statement today but, with GDP likely to start growing strongly again this month as the coronavirus restrictions are lifted... 9th June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Talking about talking about tapering Fed officials may finally begin ‘talking about talking about’ tapering their asset purchases at next week’s FOMC meeting. But with recent data leaving the economy still some way from making... 9th June 2021 · 8 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (May) Producer price inflation continued to surge and reached its highest level since September 2008 last month, on the back of a further rise in global commodity prices. That said, there are some signs in... 9th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may make QE more flexible We now expect the RBA to refrain from announcing a target for the overall amount of bond purchases at the July meeting while keeping the weekly pace of purchases unchanged at $5bn. A more flexible... 8th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA tightens virus curbs, Ghana surprises with rate cut The recent tightening of containment measures to curb South Africa’s third virus wave will probably not be as damaging for the economy as earlier rounds of restrictions. Even so, the prospect of... 4th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB likely to look through rising inflation May’s inflation data were a little stronger than we and the consensus had expected, and inflation looks set to keep rising in the second half of the year. At next week's ECB meeting, we think that... 4th June 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Can the government spend its way to more births? While few observers believe the new three-child policy announced this week will do much to lift China’s birth rate, some are pinning higher hopes on the promise of more generous welfare benefits for... 4th June 2021 · 8 mins read
India Economics Update RBI will keep policy loose for a long time yet The Reserve Bank kept the repo rate on hold at a record low today and announced plans to ramp up government bond purchases on the secondary market, underlining its commitment to supporting the... 4th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea vaccinations surge, Philippines rate cuts loom A surge in vaccinations in Korea has brightened the prospects for the consumer recovery and strengthened our view that the central bank will be able to begin tightening monetary policy this year. In... 4th June 2021 · 5 mins read
ECB Watch Preparing the ground for a super-dovish taper We think the ECB will tweak its monetary policy statement next week by pledging to maintain favourable financing conditions but not renewing its pledge to keep PEPP purchases at the recent... 3rd June 2021 · 8 mins read
India Economics Focus The fallout from the second wave India’s ferocious second wave of COVID infections is likely to have caused the economy to contract by about 5% over Q2 as a whole. The good news is that the outbreak is quickly subsiding and activity... 3rd June 2021 · 10 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to wait until July before tapering again Inflation surpassed the upper limit of the Bank of Canada’s target range in April but, with second-quarter GDP growth set to be weaker than the Bank expected and Governor Tiff Macklem concerned about... 2nd June 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus The impact of the pandemic on inflation We expect inflation to rise to the mid-point of the RBA’s target band over the next couple of years. The main driver is a continued tightening of the labour market and a pick-up in wage growth. By... 2nd June 2021 · 16 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will expand QE by another $100bn next month The Reserve Bank of Australia still sounded dovish when it kept policy settings unchanged today. We think it will expand its bond purchase program by another $100bn next month. 1st June 2021 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack The three-child policy: too little, too late State media announced today that China’s family planning policy will be relaxed to allow all families to have three children, up from the current limit of two. This comes shortly after China’s once-a... 31st May 2021 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Fiscal policy to remain loose for longer Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg noted in October that the Government would not pursue budget repair until the unemployment rated was comfortably below 6%. However, the unemployment rate fell much... 31st May 2021 · 10 mins read
