China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) After stabilising in June, broad credit growth resumed its downward trajectory in July and is now at its slowest since February last year. We expect the slowdown and resulting headwind to the economy... 11th August 2021 · 2 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ set to hike rates by 50 basis points The New Zealand economy is clearly overheating and the Bank’s mandates for both inflation and the labour market are now fulfilled. We therefore expect the RBNZ to hike the OCR by 50bps at its upcoming... 11th August 2021 · 7 mins read
FX Dollar resumes its rally on the back of strong US data The US dollar is ending the week higher against most currencies, extending its gains alongside rising US Treasury yields following the stronger-than-expected July payrolls data. With Fed officials... 6th August 2021 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Update Baht to weaken further as external deficit widens The worsening prospects for the Thai economy and the shift in the current account from a huge surplus to a sizeable deficit mean the Thai baht is likely to weaken further over the coming year. 6th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly NBP a bit more hawkish, but poles apart from the CBR A slew of comments from policymakers at Poland’s central bank (the NBP) this week suggest that the probability of the central bank delivering a rate hike before the end of this year has increased... 6th August 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly What we learnt, and didn’t learn, from the BoE We learnt three things from this Thursday’s Bank of England policy decision and were left in the dark on two key issues. As a result, some of our forecasts for money market rates and gilt yields have... 6th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Rate cuts coming in Thailand and the Philippines Whereas several EM central banks are in the middle of aggressive tightening cycles, Thailand and the Philippines are likely to resume rate cutting soon. 6th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: rate cuts still on the cards The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept its policy rate on hold on Thursday, and we continue to hold a non-consensus view that a fall in inflation later in the year will allow the CBE to resume its... 6th August 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update RBI in no rush to tighten policy The Reserve Bank kept the repo rate on hold at a record low today and announced plans to ramp up government bond purchases on the secondary market, underlining its commitment to supporting the... 6th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ may hike rates by 50 basis points in two weeks The tightening in the labour market back to pre-virus levels in Q2 is further evidence that the New Zealand economy is now overheating. As such, the financial markets are right in anticipating a rate... 6th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA may be too pessimistic about price pressures The Reserve Bank of Australia signalled today that it’s unlikely to reverse the tapering of its bond purchases even as Sydney’s virus outbreak is getting worse. We still expect the tight labour market... 6th August 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Relapse risks rising Economic activity has been recovering quickly since the second virus wave abated. But we've argued for some time that the rapid reopening increases the risk of new outbreaks. That threat is building... 6th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hawkish CNB flags faster pace of monetary tightening The Czech National Bank (CNB) raised its two-week repo rate by 25bp to 0.75% at today’s meeting, and its communications signalled that policymakers will raise rates more quickly than they had... 5th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Lagging behind Vaccination campaigns across Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to struggle, leaving the region vulnerable to renewed virus outbreaks. This, combined with tight fiscal policy, a slow return of tourists... 5th August 2021 · 22 mins read
UK Economics Update MPC starts to signal rate hikes The Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) policy statement sent a clear signal that higher interest rates are on the horizon. But there were few signs that it is preparing to hike rates soon. What’s more... 5th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: further hikes in store as inflation concerns build The hawkish statement accompanying yesterday’s 100bp rate hike by the Brazilian central bank (to 5.25%) means that the Selic rate will increase further than we had anticipated. We now expect it to be... 5th August 2021 · 3 mins read
