Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ may delay hiking until May The recent reimposition of the strictest level of lockdown in New Zealand was enough to prevent the RBNZ from hiking rates in August. And our assumption that restrictions will now remain in place... 20th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea to hike rates next week With new cases of COVID-19 rising, most analysts expect the Bank of Korea (BoK) to leave rates unchanged on Thursday. While it is likely to be a close call, we are sticking with our view that the... 20th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ to delay tightening until next year A fresh lockdown upended the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s plan to raise interest rates this week. Given that the latest virus outbreak is driven by the highly contagious Delta variant, we suspect... 20th August 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly The broad contours of policy normalisation We’ve argued for some time that the RBI is in no rush to join several of its emerging market peers in tightening monetary policy, a view that has been reinforced by the dovish commentary in the latest... 20th August 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update LPR on hold but cuts on the horizon Commercial banks left the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) on hold for a 16th straight month today. But with the economy losing momentum, we think it won’t be long before the PBOC is guiding rates lower. Even so... 20th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Inflation risks growing Inflation is at, or close to, multi-year highs across Latin America which has prompted a slew of interest rate hikes across the region. We think that central banks in Brazil, Mexico, Chile and Peru... 19th August 2021 · 14 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: more hikes to come The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) hiked interest rates today to help support the currency. With the rupee likely to remain under downward pressure over the coming months, further rate hikes are... 19th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: rates set for prolonged hold Bank Indonesia left its main policy rate on hold at 3.50% today, and signalled that rates are likely to remain low for the foreseeable future. We think the policy rate will remain unchanged until at... 19th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Asia bucks the monetary policy trend Several EM central banks have continued to tighten monetary policy over the past month or so in response to strong reopening rebounds (Chile, Czech Republic, Hungary) and/or rising inflation concerns... 18th August 2021 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ ready to lift rates when restrictions ease The RBNZ sounded hawkish when it left rates on hold today, but the decision demonstrates that the Bank is taking a cautious approach in light of the current lockdown. Assuming restrictions can be... 18th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Peru & Mexico hikes, Chile’s public spending spree Peru’s central bank, under the renewed stewardship of Governor Julio Velarde, started its tightening cycle yesterday with a 25bp rate hike, to 0.50%, and we think that rates will rise to 2.75% by the... 13th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico’s tightening cycle progressing slowly Mexico’s central bank hiked interest rates by 25bp, to 4.50%, yesterday but the split vote suggests that the tightening cycle will continue to proceed slowly despite the growing inflation risks. This... 13th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think Treasury yields and oil prices will continue to diverge Although the two markets have often moved in tandem, we expect Treasury yields to continue to rise over the next few years even as oil prices resume their decline. 12th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Erdogan disappointed as CBRT stands pat Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) left interest rates on hold at 19.00% today and, with inflation likely to remain elevated over the coming months and the economy having bounced back quickly from May’s... 12th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines central bank to cut rates in September The Philippines’ central bank (BSP) left its main policy rate on hold at 2.00% today, but with inflation fears receding, more rate cuts to support the beleaguered economy are likely soon. 12th August 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Recovery becoming more tepid With a whopping 1.0 million people on average having been asked by the NHS App or Test & Trace system to self-isolate in July, the “pingdemic” is likely to have stifled the economic recovery in recent... 11th August 2021 · 9 mins read
