China Chart Pack Power shortages another blow to global supply chains We still don’t have enough data to judge the extent of the disruption to China’s factory output from power rationing with much certainty. But with supply chains already stretched, even a modest hit to... 30th September 2021 · 13 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hawkish CNB accelerates its tightening cycle The Czech National Bank (CNB) stepped up the pace of its tightening cycle with a 75bp interest rate hike, to 1.50%, at today’s meeting and its hawkish communications signalled that further aggressive... 30th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Debt restructuring talks inching forward The threat of messy outcomes to Sub-Saharan Africa’s debt problems seems to have diminished recently. In Zambia, the new administration vowed to tackle debt problems and press on with restructuring... 30th September 2021 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Early signs of second-round effects from soaring prices The RBA expects headline inflation to drop back from 3.8% in Q2 to 1.5% by mid-2022. By contrast, we now only expect it to fall to 2.5% over this period, reflecting the pass-through from soaring coal... 30th September 2021 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily Supply shortages, monetary policy and stock/bond correlations Although we expect bond yields to rise further, we don’t think that would necessarily coincide with the sort of sharp falls in equity prices we saw earlier this week. 29th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Rate hikes brought forward, but end point still low There has been a hawkish shift among many of the world’s central banks over recent weeks as inflation has continued to surprise on the upside. In this Global Central Bank Watch, we assess the reasons... 29th September 2021 · 15 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Asian central banks in little rush to raise rates Over the past month or so, the central banks of Korea, Pakistan and Sri Lanka have all raised interest rates, but we don’t think other countries will be in any rush to follow suit. There is certainly... 29th September 2021 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Re-opening boost fades as supply disruptions mount Economies across Emerging Europe enjoyed a rapid rebound in Q2, but all the signs suggest that the recovery has come off the boil in Q3. Surveys of sentiment in services sectors have started to... 29th September 2021 · 15 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: rates to stay low for an extended period The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates on hold today at 0.5%, and we have taken out the rate cut we originally had pencilled in for this year. However, rate hikes are still a long way off. 29th September 2021 · 2 mins read
RBI Watch Rate hikes remain a distant prospect Policy rates are highly likely to be left unchanged at the conclusion of the RBI’s upcoming MPC meeting on Friday 8 th October, particularly given the recent drop in inflation. The committee might... 29th September 2021 · 6 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ finally set to hike rates New Zealand has slowed the spread of the Delta variant and eased its lockdown, which stopped the RBNZ from hiking in August. And the RBNZ still seems keen to hike rates given the red-hot economy. We... 29th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Rise in inflation to prove short-lived Inflation in many economies in the region has risen to multi-year highs in recent months. In general, this has been driven higher by a combination of unfavourable base effects from the pandemic, as... 28th September 2021 · 14 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack External headwinds growing Falling new virus cases and the lifting of restrictions have boosted economies across the region in Q3, but the deteriorating external backdrop will put a lid on growth from here. Even with an orderly... 28th September 2021 · 14 mins read
RBA Watch RBA set to hike in 2023 With the latest lockdowns set to end next month, we expect the RBA to taper its bond purchases in February. We still expect wage growth to accelerate more rapidly than the Bank anticipates and stick... 28th September 2021 · 8 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Labour shortages getting worse Labour shortages have intensified in recent months, which could both act as a brake on the recovery and lead to a stronger acceleration in wage growth. According to the CFIB Business Barometer, the... 27th September 2021 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Rate cut in Thailand, Taiwan applies to join CPTPP With the economy in the doldrums and deflation worries increasing, we think the Bank of Thailand will cut interest rates by a further 25bp at its meeting on Wednesday (most other analysts are... 24th September 2021 · 7 mins read
