Asia Economics Weekly Time to worry about inflation? The recent jump in energy prices will put upward pressure on inflation across the region, but the impact should prove short lived and is unlikely to worry policymakers. 8th October 2021 · 7 mins read
India Economics Update Rate hikes remain a distant prospect The Reserve Bank kept the repo rate on hold at a record low today and stressed that its latest liquidity-withdrawal measures do not constitute policy tightening. Given our view that the recovery will... 8th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s dovish stance set to be challenged While the RBNZ this week hiked interest rates by 25bp and signalled that more is to come, the RBA remained dovish. That makes sense in light of the continued weakness in underlying inflation and wage... 8th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Headwinds strengthening Supply shortages and rising energy prices are becoming stronger headwinds to the euro-zone recovery. The latest data from Germany showed sharp falls in industrial orders and production, with... 7th October 2021 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update BoI ends asset purchases, rate hike now likely in 2022 The Bank of Israel revised up its forecast for GDP growth at today’s meeting and struck a more hawkish tone on inflation as it announced that it will end its asset purchase programme later this year... 7th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Conditions for strong recovery finally in place With the Delta wave having ebbed and the majority of the population now fully vaccinated, we expect a strong rebound in domestic demand over the coming months. But the inflation concerns that hang... 7th October 2021 · 21 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP catches everyone off guard with a surprise hike The National Bank of Poland (NBP) unexpectedly hiked its policy rate by 40bp to 0.50% at today’s MPC meeting, but the accompanying communications were underwhelming and suggest that the rate hike was... 6th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update What might prompt the Bank to take a hawkish turn? The sharp slowdown in economic growth in the past couple of quarters suggests that the probability of the Bank of Canada following other central banks in becoming more hawkish is low. The risk will... 6th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to continue hiking rates as restrictions ease The RBNZ’s decision to begin its hiking cycle while Auckland is still in lockdown highlights that the New Zealand economy is on the brink of overheating. And as restrictions ease, we think the Bank... 6th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea still on for another hike in 2021 Korean consumer prices saw another strong m/m rise last month, and while we don’t think this is a major cause for concern it still adds weight to our view that the central bank will hike rates again... 6th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBR hikes interest rates, further tightening to follow The National Bank of Romania (NBR) raised its policy rate by 25bp to 1.50% at today’s meeting, and the backdrop of rising inflation, large twin deficits and currency weakness means that further rate... 5th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia- Sustained high inflation will prompt rate hikes in 2023 The RBA today stuck to its guns by predicting that rates won't rise until 2024, but our view that inflation will remain higher for longer means it will happen in early-2023 already. 5th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico & Colombia hike but tightening cycles to differ Central banks in Mexico and Colombia raised their policy rates by 25bp yesterday and more rate hikes are in the pipeline in both economies. The pace of tightening will remain gradual in Mexico but... 1st October 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Opinions at Riksbank slowly starting to shift our way The minutes from the Riksbank’s last meeting, which were released this week, indicate that half of the six Executive Board members think the time is approaching to dial the dovishness back a touch... 1st October 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Soaring food and energy prices to keep inflation high The spike in rural commodity prices should spill over into higher food inflation before long. And while the impact of higher energy commodity prices is less clear cut, we think electricity inflation... 1st October 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Further Nationalbank rate cuts not out of the question While the announcement of a 10bp interest rate cut by Denmark’s Nationalbank this afternoon seemingly goes against the grain of the recent hawkish shifts by the US Fed and Bank of England, it is the... 30th September 2021 · 3 mins read
