US Chart Pack Uncertainty over Fed’s reaction function We are confident in our new forecasts that GDP growth will be a disappointing 2.7% in 2022 and 2.0% in 2023, while core inflation remains elevated at close to 3%, but we are less confident in our... 21st October 2021 · 9 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank to look through weaker yen and supply shortages Sitting comfortably with continuity candidate PM Kishida in charge, the Bank of Japan won’t alter its major policy settings at its October meeting. And we doubt the Bank will respond with policy... 21st October 2021 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon and Tunisia face a tough task to tackle crises The IMF confirmed this week that technical talks with Lebanon have restarted. But even before any sort of deal is reached, the government has the tough task of restructuring its defaulted Eurobond... 21st October 2021 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Australia- Wage growth will approach 3% by end-2022 A renewed tightening of the labour market next year means that wage growth will accelerate further. That pick-up will be underpinned by a stronger minimum wage hike, the lifting of caps on public... 21st October 2021 · 15 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the outlook for DM monetary policy & bonds Even though we think that most major developed markets (DM) central banks will hike their policy rates more slowly than investors currently anticipate over the next two years, we still expect the... 20th October 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Supply shortages limiting economic growth We now expect GDP growth to be 4.8% in 2021, rather than 5.0%, and 3.5% in 2022, down from 4.0%. Worsening labour shortages imply that spare capacity has been rapidly absorbed and point to a sharp... 20th October 2021 · 19 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Near-term recovery to face stronger headwinds The region has experienced a rapid recovery, but the re-opening boost has now faded and the region is likely to face stronger headwinds in the near term due to surging COVID-19 cases, rising inflation... 20th October 2021 · 28 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Interest rates and inflation to remain low Growth in China will weaken further over the coming year as a downturn deepens in industry and construction. The outlook for the rest of the region is improving. We expect many economies to rebound... 20th October 2021 · 35 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Well placed to navigate choppy waters As highly-open economies, Switzerland and the Nordics are far from immune to the issues of slowing global growth and supply-chain shortages that are currently vexing investors. Sweden is perhaps most... 20th October 2021 · 13 mins read
India Chart Pack RBI in no hurry to withdraw policy support The latest activity data suggest that India's recovery has entered a slower phase, with global supply shortages starting to weigh on the economy too. In addition, India’s vaccination coverage remains... 20th October 2021 · 9 mins read
China Economics Update Pullback in easing expectations overdone The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained on hold for the 18th straight month today. And investors have recently pared back their expectations for monetary easing. But given growing economic strains... 20th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Running into troubled waters Supply chain problems will slow the recovery and keep inflation above target until around the middle of next year. Beyond that, however, the economy should get back on track. After regaining its pre... 19th October 2021 · 31 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Best of the recovery now over Easing virus outbreaks and the lifting of restrictions boosted recoveries across Latin America in Q3, but growth looks set to slow sharply over the coming quarters. The re-opening boost will soon fade... 19th October 2021 · 25 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Domestic headwinds fading While parts of Japan’s manufacturing sector remain under severe pressure from global supply chain shortages, domestic headwinds to the recovery have dissipated further in recent weeks. That supports... 19th October 2021 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf to outperform Economic recoveries in the Gulf will continue to gather pace over the coming year on the back of successful vaccine rollouts and higher oil output, and our GDP growth forecasts lie above the consensus... 19th October 2021 · 25 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia will be in no rush to tighten next year Bank Indonesia today left its policy rate unchanged at 3.5% and signalled that it is likely to leave rates on hold for a prolonged period of time. With the economy rebounding but inflation set to stay... 19th October 2021 · 3 mins read
