Latin America Chart Pack Fiscal risks in the spotlight The growing likelihood that Brazil’s government will circumvent its spending cap adds to broader signs that austerity is becoming politically difficult to implement across the region. For instance... 26th October 2021 · 10 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Recoveries under fire as supply crisis spreads The global recovery will slow in the coming quarters as the initial post-lockdown rebound fades and policy support is reduced. At the same time, supply shortages are likely to persist well into next... 26th October 2021 · 45 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Renewed virus waves cast clouds over the recovery COVID-19 outbreaks have surged across the region in the past month. Record high daily cases have been reported in Russia, Romania, Bulgaria and Latvia and infections are rising sharply elsewhere... 26th October 2021 · 12 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Surveys point to higher wage inflation Wage growth remained moderate over the summer but, with labour shortages intensifying, it seems likely to accelerate sharply soon. The Bank of Canada’s third-quarter Business Outlook Survey (BOS)... 26th October 2021 · 9 mins read
China Economic Outlook Downturn setting in The economy slowed sharply in Q3. Weakness in services is already reversing as virus controls have been relaxed again. But industry and construction are on the cusp of a deeper downturn that could... 26th October 2021 · 23 mins read
India Economics Update MPC fault lines emerge, but doves still in control The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s October policy meeting suggest greater divergence of opinion within the MPC, with two members calling for more definitive steps towards policy normalisation. But most... 25th October 2021 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US dollar edges lower ahead of next round of CB meetings With a couple of exceptions, currency markets have had a quiet week; the US dollar is ending the week a touch weaker against most other currencies, but in aggregate it remains close to its strongest... 22nd October 2021 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic growth to disappoint as CRB ends The winding down of government support to households and firms means the economy faces a large fiscal contraction this quarter, which we think will cause GDP growth to disappoint. 22nd October 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Investors overestimating interest rate hikes The extent of the shift in investors’ expectations of interest rates over the past month has been staggering. Investors are now pricing in an 80% chance of a hike to Bank Rate, from 0.10% to 0.25%, at... 22nd October 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR accelerates its tightening cycle again Russia’s central bank (CBR) stepped up the pace of its tightening cycle again at today’s meeting with a larger-than-expected 75bp interest rate hike, to 7.50%, and the hawkish tone of the accompanying... 22nd October 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Market pricing on RBA too aggressive Despite the rise in virus cases in recent weeks, strong inflation in New Zealand increases the pressure on the RBNZ to tighten policy further. While we are sticking to our forecast of a 25bp hike in... 22nd October 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Policy outlook, new forecasts, property tax Ahead of the publication of our quarterly China Economics Outlook next week, we consider how Evergrande's woes, power cuts and supply shortages have shifted prospects for the economy. Our answer... 22nd October 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Further rate cuts likely to add to the lira’s woes The lira fell to a new low against the US dollar today as a result of a larger-than-expected cut of 200 bp to the 1-week repo rate by Turkey’s central bank (CBRT). Continued pressure from President... 21st October 2021 · 5 mins read
ECB Watch ECB insisting that inflation is largely transient Nobody expects the ECB Governing Council to make any policy changes at next week’s monetary policy meeting. However, Christine Lagarde will address concerns about rising inflationary pressures and we... 21st October 2021 · 7 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to call time on QE We expect the Bank of Canada to call time on its net asset purchases next week by transitioning to the “reinvestment phase” of QE. Widespread labour shortages suggest economic slack is being rapidly... 21st October 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT now playing with fire after aggressive rate cut Any remaining confidence in the credibility of Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) was shattered after today’s larger-than-expected 200bp interest rate cut, to 16.00%. The lira hit a fresh record low against... 21st October 2021 · 3 mins read
