Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Rising inflation to delay resumption of CBE’s easing The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept interest rates unchanged at Thursday’s MPC meeting amid rising price pressures. Against this backdrop, we think that the central bank is likely to delay the... 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA set to ditch yield target next week The rise in trimmed mean inflation into the RBA’s 2-3% target band for the first time in six years has only added to the aggressive repricing in the outlook for the RBA’s policy rate over the past... 29th October 2021 · 7 mins read
China Chart Pack Energy shortages starting to ease Despite a flurry of media reports in September hinting at widespread disruption, the data suggest that China’s recent power shortages have not been too severe. Electricity output actually rose 0.6% in... 29th October 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB sticking to view that inflation is transient The ECB stuck to its script today, arguing that although the increase in inflation now underway will be larger and last longer than previously anticipated, it is still temporary. Meanwhile... 28th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds set the stage for slower growth The EM recovery is now entering a more difficult phase as the boost from economic re-opening fades, supply shortages bite, growth in China weakens and the terms of trade worsen for major commodity... 28th October 2021 · 26 mins read
UK Economics BoE fast out of the blocks on rates, but won’t go the distance We now think there’s a high chance that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will raise interest rates from 0.10% to 0.25% at the meeting on Thursday 4 th November. It may then raise rates to 0.50% in... 28th October 2021 · 13 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Hope on vaccines, but still a long way to go COVID-19 vaccine coverage remains pitifully low across much of Sub-Saharan Africa, with less than 10% of populations having received at least a first dose in most countries. But there are signs that... 28th October 2021 · 11 mins read
Japan Economics Update Policy tightening still a distant prospect The Bank of Japan shocked no one in keeping its interest rate targets unchanged today, a status quo we think will last for years. The Bank also revised down its growth forecasts for the current fiscal... 28th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: fiscal risks to push Selic rate into double digits The Brazilian central bank’s decision to up the pace of tightening to a 150bp rate hike (which took the Selic rate to 7.75%) was a clear response to concerns about a looser fiscal stance. With fiscal... 28th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack What do higher oil prices mean outside of the Gulf? The Gulf countries will be among the biggest winners globally from the recent rally in energy prices but most other parts of the Middle East and North Africa are net oil importers and are likely to be... 27th October 2021 · 10 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Headwinds beyond vaccine woes intensifying Extremely low vaccine coverage continues to cast a dark cloud over recovery prospects in Sub-Saharan Africa and this will be compounded by deteriorations in the terms of trade and tighter fiscal... 27th October 2021 · 22 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank ends QE and pulls forward guidance on first hike The Bank of Canada called time on its QE program today and indicated that it could raise interest rates as soon as the second quarter of next year. The Bank’s GDP forecasts still look too upbeat to us... 27th October 2021 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Inflation concerns to be offset by weaker growth The Fed is set to announce at next week’s FOMC meeting that it will shortly begin to taper its monthly asset purchases. But of more interest will be the extent to which the new statement reflects the... 27th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Asia Chart Pack South East Asia bouncing back The near-term outlook for South East Asia has improved dramatically over the past month or so. Daily cases of COVID-19 have collapsed and are now less than one-third of the level they were at in... 27th October 2021 · 15 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Money growth has slowed this year and is likely to decline further next year. Meanwhile, although the pandemic has resulted in a huge increase in the money supply, we do not think this will cause... 27th October 2021 · 4 mins read
RBA Watch RBA’s dovish view increasingly under pressure The acceleration in underlying inflation increases the pressure on the RBA to adjust its forward guidance. But with wage growth still sluggish, we think it will stick to its pledge that rate hikes are... 27th October 2021 · 8 mins read
