Asia Economics Update Philippines: rates will stay low to support recovery The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate on hold at 2.00% today to support the economic recovery, and with GDP still well below its pre-pandemic level, rates are set to... 18th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update All eyes on CBRT as Turkish lira continues to tumble There has been no let up for the Turkish lira today and all eyes are turning to the central bank’s interest rate decision tomorrow. Policymakers’ increased tolerance to falls in the lira as well as... 17th November 2021 · 4 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ to accelerate hiking cycle The New Zealand economy is clearly overheating. Measures of underlying inflation are mostly above the ceiling of the RBNZ’s target band. And employment is now above the Bank’s estimate of the maximum... 17th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q3) The 0.6% q/q rise in the wage price index in Q3 will provide the RBA with some confidence that rates need to remain low in the near term. But we think that wage growth will rise over 2022, putting... 17th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update MNB drops a bombshell as it pledges faster tightening Investors were initially disappointed following the decision by Hungary’s central bank (MNB) to raise its base rate by only 30bp (to 2.10%) today, but the hawkish post-meeting communications and a... 16th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: threat of currency crisis continues to grow The Turkish lira has remained under significant pressure at the start of this week and there is a growing risk that the central bank’s continued obedience to pressure from President Erdogan for... 16th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Higher rates quickly adding to Brazil’s fiscal challenge By next year, Brazil’s public sector interest payments could be almost twice as large (at ~8% of GDP) as they were in 2020, making the challenge of stabilising the public debt-to-GDP ratio all the... 15th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus ECB will persist with QE and negative rates for years We expect the ECB to interpret a period of above-target inflation as “transient” even if it lasts for well over a year. Although it will end its emergency PEPP programme next March, the Bank will step... 15th November 2021 · 25 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Core inflation concerns, elections in focus The October CPI figures out of the region this week, which showed a marked strengthening of core inflation, are likely to ring alarm bells for central banks in the region and may trigger larger rate... 12th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB to hike or not to hike? That’s investors’ question The big event next week is South Africa’s MPC meeting which will be a very close call, but on balance we think that the first rate hike will not be delivered just yet. And, further ahead, the... 12th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE inflation worries mount, Turkish lira closing in on 10 Inflation data out of Central and Eastern Europe this week provided for ugly viewing and with headline rates likely to rise further above central bank's targets in the coming months, this will keep... 12th November 2021 · 11 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Would the SNB be comfortable with franc/euro parity? The persistent weakness of Swiss inflation, and the resulting trend appreciation in the nominal exchange rate, presents the SNB with a moving target when assessing when it will intervene during bouts... 12th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly South East Asia disruption eases, Sri Lanka in peril Recent data from Malaysia and Vietnam suggest that virus-related disruption is continuing to ease. This should help alleviate some of the supply constraints currently holding back growth elsewhere in... 12th November 2021 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico sticking to gradual pace of tightening The Mexican central bank’s 25bp rate hike, to 5.00%, and the accompanying statement showed little sign that policymakers are likely to follow their peers in Latin America by upping the pace of... 12th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation will keep the RBA under pressure Business purchase costs in the October NAB survey rose to their strongest level since 2008, consistent with trimmed mean inflation of nearly 1.5% q/q. That probably overstates the strength in... 12th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack More signs that the recovery is hitting the buffers Recent indicators confirm that the global recovery has continued, but also that it has entered a slower and more difficult phase. US GDP growth slowed sharply in Q3, and our China Activity Proxy... 11th November 2021 · 13 mins read
