China Economics Update RRR cut today, rate cuts tomorrow? The People’s Bank (PBOC) has just announced a cut to the required reserve ratio (RRR) for most banks, shortly after Premier Li and the Politburo each separately hinted at an increase in policy support... 6th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Central banks and Omicron, Colombia CA risks The emergence of the Omicron variant presents a key risk to economic recoveries in the region, although the experience from the latest virus wave in the region provides a reason to think it will not... 3rd December 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank to hike sooner as labour market nears full health As the labour market is nearing a full recovery and wages are rising strongly, we now expect the Bank to hike interest rates in April, rather than waiting until July, as we previously expected. 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell signals turning point in policy Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony this week was markedly more hawkish. We wouldn’t characterise it as a full-blown Volcker moment. But there could be parallels with former Chair Alan... 3rd December 2021 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Year-end policy bash to strike a more dovish tone The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing is likely to signal that policy is turning more supportive. But loosening will be measured, and growth over coming quarters will still slow. 3rd December 2021 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Omicron restrictions wouldn’t jolt BoJ into action Even if Omicron proves more transmissible than Delta, its impact on Japan’s economy could vary substantially depending on how deadly it is, how well it evades vaccines, and PM Kishida’s appetite for... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Christmas parties, Omicron inflation risks, MPC’s dilemma Some tentative evidence may already be emerging that the Omicron COVID-19 variant may have softened economic activity. It’s less clear what it means for inflation and there’s a risk that it... 3rd December 2021 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation exacerbates economic crisis in Sri Lanka The economic situation in Sri Lanka is going from bad to worse, with a surge in inflation undermining the credibility of the central bank (CBSL) and making a debt default all the more likely. 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB’s patience appears to be wearing thin We argued this week that the upside for the Swiss franc was limited and its inability to push past the CHF 1.04 per euro mark suggests that policymakers’ patience may already have been exhausted. We... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s line on inflation contrasts with the Fed’s In contrast to those at the US Fed, ECB policymakers are not ready to retire their argument that the current bout of high inflation is temporary. This reflects the significant difference in... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Nov.) The rise in Turkey’s headline inflation rate to 21.3% y/y in November will almost certainly be followed by further chunky increases over the coming months that take it to 25-30% as the effects of the... 3rd December 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Omicron could add to inflationary pressure If Omicron were able to evade existing vaccines, a renewed period of lockdowns would be required which would force the RBA to step up its bond purchases. Inflation would fall initially as crude oil... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly There is policy space to cushion any Omicron blow Low vaccine coverage makes India's economy highly vulnerable to the emergence of the Omicron variant. The crumb of comfort is that there is policy space to soften some of the economic blow from a new... 3rd December 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update We anticipate that the rand will remain weak The South African rand has rallied over the past few days after reaching its lowest level against the US dollar in more than a year following last week’s news about the Omicron variant. Even if the... 1st December 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Omicron & Powell present risks to our Treasury yield view The spread of the Omicron variant and Fed Chair Powell’s latest comments to Congress both present some downside risks to our view that the 10-year US Treasury yield will end next year some way above... 1st December 2021 · 5 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to keep policy rate guidance unchanged Growing wage pressures and the renewed strength of house prices are likely to concern the Bank of Canada but, with oil prices plunging in the past week due to fears about the Omicron variant, we doubt... 1st December 2021 · 7 mins read
