Japan Economics Focus BoJ would only cut rates if economy tanks While we expect inflation to fall below the Bank of Japan’s 2% next year, the Bank’s still very accommodative stance means that this alone won’t trigger interest rate cuts. We think it would require a... 19th August 2024 · 15 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is the UK enjoying ‘Goldilocks’ conditions? The good news just kept coming this week. The economy grew at an above-trend rate for the second quarter in a row in Q2, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%. At 2.2%, CPI inflation is only a touch... 16th August 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Not a balance sheet recession, yet Weak credit data has stoked fears of a balance sheet recession in China. While the economy is still far from reaching that point, the private sector will eventually start to cut down on its borrowing... 16th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentine inflation, Brazil’s hawks, change in Venezuela? Suggestions from the governments of Brazil and Colombia have led to a bit of movement towards solving Venezuela’s post-election stand-off. A lot remains uncertain, but our sense is that the likelihood... 16th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Thailand’s truce breaks down, Asia’s central banks start to shift stance Paetongtarn Shinawatra is the third member of her family to serve as Thailand’s prime minister. Both her father and her aunt then went into exile. Events over the past two weeks will give investors no... 16th August 2024 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Consumption revival points to another rate hike The strong rebound in household consumption last quarter was underpinned by a pick-up in real incomes. This should allay lingering concerns among BoJ policymakers that the economy is too weak to cope... 16th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ likely to loosen faster than it has signalled When it kicked off its easing cycle this week, the RBNZ indicated that it would take a measured approach to cutting rates over the coming months. However, we think the Bank is understating the... 16th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Colombia GDP (Q2 2024) The Colombian economy isn’t nearly as weak as the meagre 0.1% q/q rise in headline GDP in Q2 would suggest; there was a large drag from net trade while domestic demand remained very strong. The strong... 15th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jul. '24) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 33.4% in July, the first time it had slowed in 18 months, as the passthrough from previous naira falls has finally started to faded. With inflation having... 15th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank remains hawkish Norges Bank’s decision to leave its policy rate unchanged at today’s meeting, at 4.5%, was never in doubt. However, we still suspect that continued declines in inflation will allow it to start cutting... 15th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (August 2024) The Antipodean central banks will tread different paths when it comes to policy setting in the near term. With the New Zealand economy in a tailspin and inflation well on its way to target, the RBNZ... 15th August 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank to cut rates with more on the way Since the Riksbank’s last meeting in June, Swedish inflation and activity data have been weaker than policymakers expected. We think this will encourage them to cut the key policy rate from 3.75% to 3... 14th August 2024 · 5 mins read
