Europe Economics Weekly ECB dovish; French politics; defence spending to rise? Investors appear to have interpreted Christine Lagarde’s comments yesterday, and the subsequent leaks to the media, as more hawkish than expected. But we remain convinced that the ECB will cut... 13th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Close call for the Bank of Thailand The coming week sees scheduled central bank meetings in Pakistan, Thailand, Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. We are expecting holds in Indonesia and Taiwan, but cuts in the rest. The closest... 13th December 2024 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Stars align for February repo rate cut The change in leadership at the RBI, along with the drop in headline CPI inflation in November reported this week, mean the stars are aligning for a repo rate cut in February. 13th December 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: CEWC flags boosting consumption as top priority The full readout from the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) adds weight to the idea that China’s leadership is shifting its focus toward supporting consumption. But it still appears too fixated... 13th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Tankan adds to case for December hike We’re in a minority of analysts expecting the Bank of Japan to hike rates next week. But the ongoing labour shortages and strength of output price pressures flagged in today’s Tankan have only made a... 13th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Inflation in South Africa: more downside surprises to come Inflation in South Africa is now running at extremely low rates by historic standards. While we think it will edge up from here, the extent of spare capacity in the economy and tight fiscal stance... 13th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA’s dovish tilt won’t bring an earlier rate cut The Reserve Bank of Australia struck a rather dovish tone at its meeting this week. As a result, markets see a growing chance that the Bank will begin its easing cycle as soon as February. However... 13th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily ECB policy may push Bund yields back down next year Given our dovish view of ECB policy, we expect German Bund yields to fall back in 2025, and to diverge further from US Treasury yields. 12th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update One step at a time for the Riksbank Next Thursday, we expect the Riksbank to reduce its policy rate from 2.75% to 2.5% as it closes in on the end of its loosening cycle. In contrast, we think Norges Bank will leave its policy rate... 12th December 2024 · 5 mins read
BoE Watch Economy not weak enough to trigger consecutive rate cuts Despite the weak news on the domestic economy and the deterioration in the global outlook, we doubt the Bank of England will follow the ECB’s lead and cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) next... 12th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Tide gradually turning at the ECB Today’s ECB policy statement and press conference suggest that policymakers are increasingly confident of meeting their inflation goal and increasingly conscious of downside risks to the economy. We... 12th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) The latest data have shown that China is benefitting from a pick-up in government spending, the US economy continues to grow at a decent pace, and other advanced economies had a soft start to Q4... 12th December 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (December 2024) While the ECB’s decision to cut its deposit rate by 25bp was widely expected, the accompanying statement suggests that policymakers are less concerned than previously about upside risks to inflation... 12th December 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China’s dovish policy shift may not be enough The readout from China’s Central Economic Work Conference provides more detailed forward guidance on plans to adopt a more supportive policy stance next year – there will be more rate cuts and a... 12th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Will Brazil succumb to fiscal dominance? The Brazilian central bank’s aggressive interest rate hike yesterday may help ease concerns that fiscal dominance will take hold. But we think that measures to keep government debt servicing costs... 12th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Trump casts a shadow, fiscal risks to intensify Tight policy, deteriorating terms of trade and, in Mexico’s case, US trade protectionism will keep GDP growth in Latin America weak and below consensus expectations in the coming years. Fiscal risks... 12th December 2024 · 22 mins read
