Emerging Europe Economics Update Hawkish MNB signals that tightening has further to go The decision by Hungary’s central bank (MNB) to raise its base rate by 30bp, to 2.40%, at today’s meeting is largely symbolic. The key point is that the central bank struck a clear hawkish tone and... 14th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Shortages to maintain upward pressure on inflation Outside China, global inflation jumped from 5.0% to 5.5% in October, its highest level since 2008. And timely data point to a further rise in November. Base effects, fading ‘re-opening’ inflation, and... 14th December 2021 · 14 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: confusing signals from the central bank The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) today raised interest rates by a further 100bp, which came as little surprise. What was unexpected, however, was the sudden shift in tone in the statement. Despite the... 14th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s updated framework maintains the status quo The Bank of Canada’s updated policy framework will not have a material effect on policy over the next couple of years, but it does support our forecast that inflation will be slightly higher on... 13th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am’s recovery falling behind other EMs The recent batch of GDP figures showed that growth in Latin America as a whole picked up in Q3, but the region’s recovery so far has been one of the weakest in the emerging world. And growth prospects... 13th December 2021 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Diverging monetary policies may extend the USD rally Today’s US CPI data produced a relatively limited reaction in the US dollar, which is set to end the week a bit weaker against most major currencies. Attention now turns to the 17(!) central bank... 10th December 2021 · 10 mins read
US Economics Weekly Pivotal week coming up for the Fed Following Chair Jerome Powell’s markedly more hawkish tone at his recent congressional testimony, markets are braced for the Fed to pivot hard at next week’s FOMC meeting 10th December 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank growing more concerned about cost pressures The Bank of Canada’s increased concerns about wage and cost pressures suggest it will start to tighten policy in April, especially if the government loosens fiscal policy in next week’s fall fiscal... 10th December 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Omicron not yet swaying EM central banks The latest EM central bank meetings confirmed that policymakers in Emerging Europe and Latin America are still focused on high and rising inflation, rather than any downside risk to the economic... 10th December 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-Ukraine tensions and the latest sanctions threat The newswires have been abuzz this week with reports of a potential Russian military conflict with Ukraine and the US has threatened sanctions which, if imposed, would clearly cause pain for Russia's... 10th December 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Economics The hit from “Plan B”, the MPC and better news on shortages The government’s recently-imposed “Plan B” COVID-19 restrictions mean there is a good chance that the economy contracted in December. If the pressure on the NHS increases, restrictions might be... 10th December 2021 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly How to get a job at the SNB; declining mobility Our CE Mobility Trackers for Sweden and Norway paint a downbeat picture for the consumer sector and mirror the clear downward trend seen in the euro-zone over H2 2021. So while we still expect the... 10th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Omicron uncertainty weighs on activity in Q4 This week brought more bad news for the euro-zone economy, with the surge in cases and spread of the Omicron variant casting a shadow over services sector activity. While recent restrictions have... 10th December 2021 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan in no rush to raise interest rates The central bank of Taiwan is likely to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting next Thursday (both the consensus and ourselves expect no change). Despite the economy operating well-above its... 10th December 2021 · 7 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to maintain flexibility in face of Omicron Just a day after we expect the Fed to prepare the ground for substantially tighter monetary policy in the coming years, policymakers at the ECB will probably commit to doubling their monthly APP... 9th December 2021 · 7 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ to extend Covid aid, won’t lose control of yields While renewed virus restrictions are unlikely to be deflationary, we think Omicron fears will prompt the Bank of Japan to err on the side of caution and extend its emergency corporate funding measures... 9th December 2021 · 8 mins read
