Latin America Economic Outlook Falling to the back of the pack The regional recovery will lag further behind others in the emerging world in the coming years. The Omicron-led surge in virus cases presents a risk to growth in the near term, but we suspect that the... 20th January 2022 · 25 mins read
Capital Daily We think the Turkish lira’s stability will prove short-lived For the first time in several months, the lira remained subdued following an interest rate announcement from Turkey’s central bank, perhaps as the decision to keep rates on hold was widely anticipated... 20th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB increasingly split over inflation outlook 20th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds to take the shine off the recovery We expect regional GDP growth to come in below expectations this year as high inflation erodes households’ real incomes and policy becomes more restrictive. Despite this view on the growth outlook, we... 20th January 2022 · 29 mins read
US Economic Outlook Inflation to remain elevated as GDP growth slows We expect underlying inflation to remain well above the 2% target this year, which means the Fed will push ahead with four rate hikes even though real GDP growth is likely to disappoint. Core... 20th January 2022 · 22 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil prices, UAE drone attack, Gulf monetary tightening The recent upwards revision to our oil price forecast means that the window for looser fiscal policy in the Gulf will remain open for a little longer than we anticipated. One of the factors driving... 20th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT: rates held in pursuit of “new economic model” Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) followed kept its one-week repo rate on hold at 14.00% today and, even though inflation is likely to breach 40% in the coming months, President Erdogan is unlikely to... 20th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: hiking cycle to be gradual Bank Indonesia left interest rates unchanged at 3.5% at its meeting today, but the decision to raise the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) from March suggests that rate hikes will come sooner than we... 20th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank will resume hikes in March After twelve years in the job, Øystein Olsen was never going to spring a surprise at his last meeting in charge of the Norges Bank. Instead, the Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% and... 20th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Markets mispricing the chance of rate hikes in Malaysia The dovish tone of Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) as it left rates on hold today only strengthens our non-consensus view that policy will be left on hold this year to support the recovery. In contrast... 20th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s hike is too little too late The 50bp rate hike made by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) today – after it stood pat for two meetings as foreign currency dried up and inflation soared – is likely to prove too little too late... 20th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBNZ will ease even as RBA starts to tighten Australia’s Omicron outbreak will hold back the recovery this quarter, but there are plenty of reasons why Australia will outperform New Zealand over the next couple of years. As the labour market has... 20th January 2022 · 25 mins read
China Economics Update Deposit rates may be next PBOC target Today’s reductions to both the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) continue the PBOC’s efforts to push down borrowing costs. We expect additional easing to follow in the coming months... 20th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada to tee up March hike Amid growing wage pressures, we now forecast that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates this quarter. While we wouldn’t rule out a hike next week, our base case is that the Bank will deliver a... 19th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We think the sell-off in E-Z government bonds has further to run While the yield of 10-year Bunds has risen a long way recently, and is now above zero for the first time since before the onset of the pandemic, we think it will increase further still. We also expect... 19th January 2022 · 7 mins read
US Fed Watch Will Fed signal that March rate hike is coming? With many Fed officials now either explicitly supporting, or at least “open to”, an interest rate hike in March, we would expect to see some acknowledgement of that in the statement issued after the... 19th January 2022 · 10 mins read
