Canada Economic Outlook Higher interest rates will leave economy vulnerable Despite a weak start to the year, we expect GDP to rise by 3.6% in 2022 due to broad-based gains in consumption, business investment and net trade. Against that backdrop, the Bank of Canada is set to... 24th January 2022 · 19 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: a pause to the tightening cycle The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) left interest rates on hold today at 9.75% and indicated that further modest tightening is likely later in the year. We think the central bank will take a breather... 24th January 2022 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Omicron impact short-lived The surge in Omicron infections means more people were self-isolating in early-January than at any time since the beginning of the pandemic, although the impact that will have on employment and output... 24th January 2022 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update Fed tightening & the outlook for US corporate bonds Our baseline forecast envisages that US corporate bond spreads rise only slightly as the Fed raises interest rates over the next couple of years. But we think the risks to this forecast are skewed to... 21st January 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the stock market sell-off Although we think that there may be some further rotation away from “growth” stocks over the next few years, as Treasury yields rise, we doubt the S&P 500 will have an awful year. 21st January 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Will they, won’t they? Whether the Bank of Canada raises interest rates next week or not, the more important question now is how high will rates eventually rise? Our view is that current market pricing is too aggressive. 21st January 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukrainian markets feel the heat, oil nearing $90pb Ukraine's financial markets remained under pressure this week as investors appear to have priced in a more serious outcome regarding Russia-Ukraine tensions. A positive reaction to today's talks... 21st January 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Balance on South African MPC tipping towards rate hike A raft of recent economic developments have shaken up our near-term views on monetary policy in South Africa, and we now expect a 25bp rate hike at next week’s MPC meeting. However, our forecasts for... 21st January 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Inflation falling but rates may rise to zero We expect consumption to rebound from the Omicron wave within a few weeks, lifting euro-zone GDP to its pre-pandemic level in the first half of the year. But GDP will remain below its pre-pandemic... 21st January 2022 · 30 mins read
US Economics Weekly Omicron reaches plateau, leaving Fed free to hike We expect the Fed to deliver some heavy hints at next week’s FOMC that it is planning an interest rate hike in March. With the Omicron wave now past its peak nationally, there is little to hold the... 21st January 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Green bond germination in Denmark The fact that Denmark’s first “green” bond was nearly five-fold oversubscribed this week, and achieved a 5bp “greenium” over the corresponding conventional 10-year bond, illustrates the depth of... 21st January 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Thai tourism boost, new oil price forecasts Better times lie head for Thailand’s tourism industry after the government this week announced it would resume its quarantine-free travel scheme from 1 st February. A recovery in tourism will not only... 21st January 2022 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly What does FinMin Marcel mean for Chile? President-elect Boric’s announcement today that (now outgoing) Governor of the Central Bank, Mario Marcel, will be Chile’s next Finance Minister is a clear signal that his government will pursue... 21st January 2022 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Encouraging signs in state-level virus data COVID infections have been falling in parts of India over the past week, particularly in those areas that were first to report Omicron waves. We’re hopeful that this is a sign of things to come, and... 21st January 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to hike rates this year The fall in the Australian unemployment rate to 4.2% in December means the labour market is now the tightest it has been since 2008. That all but confirms our forecast that the RBA will end its asset... 21st January 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Outlook We expect the dollar bull market to continue Although the dollar’s rally has stalled over the past six weeks or so, and may tread water for a while longer, we think that it will ultimately appreciate a bit further this year and next. The key... 20th January 2022 · 21 mins read
