US Economics Update Fed lines up March rate hike The Fed’s announcement that it will “soon be appropriate” to raise interest rates and the numerous hints dropped by Chair Jerome Powell in the post-meeting press conference all but guarantee that a... 26th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think emerging market currencies will generally fall from here Although emerging market currencies have held up surprisingly well so far this year amid the volatility in global equity markets, we think they will weaken in general against the US dollar before too... 26th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank stands pat but rate hike coming in March The Bank of Canada kept policy unchanged today but judges that the conditions to start raising interest rates have now been met, suggesting that it will hike its policy rate at the next meeting in... 26th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Rate hikes showing on all policy radars The re-tightening of restrictions has overshadowed the start of the year in Switzerland and the Nordics, and our GDP growth forecasts for 2022 are about 0.5%-pts lower than the consensus. Nonetheless... 26th January 2022 · 12 mins read
China Economic Outlook Cyclical trough, tepid rebound China will be buffeted in the first half of 2022 by COVID outbreaks and a further slowdown in property construction. Policy support should improve the picture later in the year, but mounting... 26th January 2022 · 23 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA probably won’t hike before the May election Trimmed mean inflation will probably climb above the upper end of the RBA’s 2-3% target band in Q1, which would add to the case for the RBA to start hiking rates in May. However, the RBA hasn’t... 26th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Some good news on the political front Political risk will be a major theme once again in Latin America this year, although recent developments have given cause for cautious optimism. Chilean President-elect Boric’s appointment of Mario... 25th January 2022 · 11 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Wage growth could prompt faster policy tightening The Bank of Canada’s fourth-quarter Business Outlook Survey showed firms’ wage expectations at a record high, which suggests that wage growth could accelerate to far above the pre-pandemic norm this... 25th January 2022 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf to drive a pick-up in regional growth in 2022 The recovery across the Middle East and North Africa is likely to gather pace this year, due in large part to the Gulf where rising oil output will cause GDP growth to pick up to rates well above... 25th January 2022 · 25 mins read
Africa Economics Update CBN remains fixated on supporting the recovery The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) kept its benchmark rate on hold at 11.50% today as it shrugged off the unexpected rise in inflation in December and maintained its focus on supporting the recovery... 25th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Growth to disappoint, but rates will rise regardless Global growth will be slower this year than last and we expect outturns in major economies including the US and China to be below consensus forecasts. The US economy will be hindered by persistent... 25th January 2022 · 49 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Central banks in no hurry to tighten Omicron should prove no more than a small stumbling block for Asia. Our forecasts are for above-trend and above-consensus growth in most countries this year. India, Indonesia and Korea are likely to... 25th January 2022 · 34 mins read
RBA Watch Surge in inflation will prompt first rate hike in August The rapid tightening of the labour market coupled with the acceleration in underlying inflation will prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to end its asset purchases at its meeting on Tuesday 1 st... 25th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q4 2021) The strong rise in underlying inflation at the end of last year means the RBA is all but certain to end its asset purchase scheme at its meeting next week. And with underlying inflation now above the... 25th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Surprise move by the MAS likely not its last in 2022 The Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) surprise move to tighten policy today, ahead of its usual April meeting, probably won’t be its last. We think the added uplift to inflation from a domestic... 25th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Hit to output from staff absences could be hard Skyrocketing infections and a 10-day isolation requirement for close contacts of positive cases have resulted in a wave of staff absences in Japan. Domestic carmakers already struggling with chip... 24th January 2022 · 10 mins read
