Capital Daily Japan and the global bond market sell-off We don’t think Japan’s 10-year government bond yield will rise much further, even as yields elsewhere do so. We expect this to contribute to further weakness in the yen. 2nd February 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Fed has better tools than a 50bp rate hike The markets are right to be sceptical of claims that the Fed could begin its tightening cycle with a “shock-and-awe” 50bp interest rate hike next month. At a time when the yield curve is already... 2nd February 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Q4 2021) The further decline in the unemployment rate to a record low of 3.2% will keep the RBNZ on its hiking cycle in the months ahead. But we suspect the unemployment rate will rise again before long. 2nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update The US and euro-zone: different crises, different outlooks The Q4 GDP data released over the past week underline the fact that the two largest developed markets – the US and euro-zone – have so far experienced very different crises and recoveries. These... 1st February 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA ends QE; first rate hike will come in August The RBA today ended its bond purchases, revised up its inflation forecasts and no longer signalled that wage growth needs to be “materially higher” to meet its inflation target on a sustained basis... 1st February 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Political risks fall, but ECB tightening points to higher spreads While we think that the re-election of Sergio Mattarella as Italy’s President of the Republic and the victory in the Portuguese general election of the current Prime Minister Antonio Costa’s socialist... 31st January 2022 · 7 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Omicron waves in the rear view mirror Waves of the Omicron variant that spread across the region in December have subsided sharply in recent weeks. And timely survey and mobility data point to a smaller hit from these latest waves... 31st January 2022 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Nudging up our Colombia rate forecast The surprisingly hawkish shift on Colombia’s central bank board at Friday’s meeting, when the policy rate was increased by 100bp to 4.00%, suggests that the tightening cycle will be more aggressive... 31st January 2022 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack A less subdued Lunar New Year Millions of people traditionally travel across China to spend this evening, the eve of Lunar New Year, with their families. The tradition has been severely disrupted by the pandemic. Last year, amid a... 31st January 2022 · 12 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria sticking with subsidies, dovish rate decisions The announcement by the Nigerian authorities to maintain fuel subsidies – rather than end the scheme as planned – reduces inflation risks, but the budget deficit is set to come in wider than... 28th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Unpacking Argentina’s IMF agreement The Argentine government’s agreement with the IMF for a new $44.5bn deal is a positive step to improve macroeconomic stability. But, at first glance, the deal seems to be based on rosy economic... 28th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Global monetary tightening a challenge for MENA Central banks in the Gulf will have to raise interest rates in line with the Fed (which we expect to hike four times both this year and next) by virtue of their dollar pegs, adding to headwinds facing... 28th January 2022 · 11 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fears of Ratemaggedon are overdone Fed Chair Jerome Powell fuelled fears of a Ratemaggedon with a hawkish performance in his press conference. But even with both wage and underlying price inflation running at near 40-year highs, we... 28th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank signals eagerness to begin QT Although the Bank of Canada kept policy unchanged this week, its signal that it intends to start quantitative tightening soon was more hawkish than most were expecting. 28th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s drive for “lira-isation”, Russia’s market sell-off The upwards revision to the Turkish central bank's 2022 inflation forecast this week was just a matter of catching up with reality and the more interesting detail was the central bank’s emphasis on... 28th January 2022 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina agrees to new IMF deal The announcement by Argentine President Fernández that the government has reached a new agreement with the IMF, the 22nd in their history, will give some relief to international bondholders in the... 28th January 2022 · 3 mins read
