UK Economics Weekly Bank signals more hikes sooner rather than later The MPC's policy statement this week cements our view that interest rates will rise further from 0.50% now to 1.25% by the end of this year and perhaps a bit further in 2023. If anything, the MPC's... 4th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly What’s Norwegian for ‘nepotism’?; franc in freefall! The sharp fall in the Swiss franc against the euro since Christine Lagarde’s hawkish routine on Thursday will have been music to the ears of the SNB. We think the Bank will be happy to bask in the... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly A hawk in owl’s clothing Highly-indebted euro-zone governments look better placed to cope with tighter monetary policy than they were when the ECB last raised interest rates, in 2011. In most cases, governments’ interest... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Stoltenberg is not the most logical of appointments Today’s appointment of Jens Stoltenberg as the new Governor of the Norges Bank is a slap in the face for the bus driver, plumber, and baker who had applied for the job, as well as the two thirds of... 4th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA hiking cycle to start as RBNZ’s ends The RBA is coming around to the view that rates will need to be hiked this year. And our forecast that inflation will continue to surprise the Bank in the months ahead is why we think it will start... 4th February 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly E-rupee will have to battle consumer indifference One of the more eye-catching elements of the Union Budget was the pledge that the RBI would introduce a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in the upcoming fiscal year. That would make the Reserve... 4th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Hawkish BoE and ECB point to higher government bond yields Today’s hawkish surprises from both the Bank of England and the ECB reinforce our view that the yields of long-dated government bonds in the UK and euro-zone will rise over the next two years and that... 3rd February 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to fall on its dovish sword next week While the Riksbank is likely to leave the repo rate unchanged at zero next Thursday (10 th February), a hawkish shift is now long overdue. We have pencilled in a 25bp repo rate hike in November 2021... 3rd February 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CNB signals that tightening cycle is almost done The Czech National Bank (CNB) slowed the pace of its tightening cycle for the second consecutive month today and the accompanying communications were less hawkish than expected and suggest that there... 3rd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB turns hawkish and tees up 2022 rate hikes While the ECB did not change its policy settings today, President Lagarde more than made up for it in the press conference. We now think the ECB will decide in March to taper its asset purchases... 3rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update CBE leaves rates on hold, but hikes on the horizon The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept interest rates unchanged at Thursday’s MPC meeting amid stronger price pressures and, if we’re right in expecting the authorities to let the pound weaken gradually... 3rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada could sell assets sooner than most One challenge for central banks as they consider reducing the size of their balances sheets is that, if they sell assets bought during the pandemic, they will likely face a financial loss. This is... 3rd February 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics BoE may hike rates to 1.25% this year despite Sunak’s help While the decisions by the Bank of England to hike interest rates from 0.25% to 0.50% and to start reversing quantitative easing (QE) were both as expected, with four MPC members wanting to raise... 3rd February 2022 · 4 mins read
RBI Watch Tightening to begin with reverse repo hike After months of incremental moves, we think the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will take a decisive step towards policy tightening by hiking the reverse repo rate at the conclusion of its MPC meeting on... 3rd February 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Copom nears the end of the cycle but still hawkish The statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank meeting yesterday, at which the Selic rate was hiked by 150bp to 10.75%, made clear that policymakers will slow the pace of tightening from here... 3rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jan.) Turkey’s headline inflation rate rose to a stronger-than-expected 48.7% y/y in January due to the effects of the recent collapse in the lira and large hikes to energy tariffs and it is likely to stay... 3rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
