Global Economics Chart Pack Weak start to 2022 won’t deter monetary tightening While data from the past month have been consistent with global economic activity picking up some pace towards the tail end of 2021, timely data point to a weak turn of the year as the Omicron wave... 11th February 2022 · 14 mins read
US Economics Weekly Rising inflation adds to pressure on the Fed The news this week that CPI inflation climbed to a new high of 7.5% in January prompted another surge in interest rate expectations. 11th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Polish hawks, Russia-Ukraine latest, Czech budget Comments from Poland’s central bank Governor Glapinski this week underlined the hawkish shift from the NBP and support our view that interest rates will rise to at least 4.5% in this cycle. Meanwhile... 11th February 2022 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Macklem betting on productivity rebound Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem made the case this week that productivity growth should rebound strongly this year and next. While we agree that a rebound is on the cards, we judge that the Bank... 11th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs looking well placed to weather tightening in DMs Rising inflation has put major DM central banks under pressure and interest rate expectations have risen. But most emerging markets look relatively well placed to weather a period of DM policy... 11th February 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: tightening far from over as inflation surges Russia’s central bank (CBR) maintained the pace of its tightening cycle today with another 100bp interest rate hike, to 9.50%, and the hawkish communications suggest that the cycle will not stop until... 11th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Ingves overrules logic and the hawkish mutineers The main takeaways from this week’s Riksbank announcement were that a) Governor Ingves is stubbornly dovish, and; b) three of the six members of the Executive Board advocate “QT” this year. Given that... 11th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB only partly rows back from hawkish shift Sifting through the numerous statements by ECB policymakers this week leaves us still thinking that the ECB is likely to “recalibrate” its plans in March and pave the way for an end to QE and a first... 11th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico: New Governor, same script The second successive 50bp hike by Mexico’s central bank (to 6.00%), in another 4-1 split on the Board, suggests that it is maintaining its hawkish stance under the new Governor Victoria Rodríguez... 11th February 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Inflation already closing in on RBI’s ceiling A key takeaway from the RBI’s policy meeting this week was that the Bank remains relaxed about the inflation outlook, expecting the headline CPI rate to peak within the tolerance band (2-6%) this... 11th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ sets its stall out, three more weeks of restrictions The Bank of Japan’s first unlimited fixed rate auction in three-and-a-half years is likely to send a strong signal to investors that +0.25% is right now a clear line in the sand for 10-year JGB yields... 11th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook Higher inflation to persist and real rates stay negative Recent developments have supported our view that the pandemic will not do much permanent damage to the level of GDP in most countries, especially developed markets. Nonetheless, it will accelerate... 10th February 2022 · 1 hr, 8 mins read
Global Markets Update Quantitative tightening and Treasury term premia We think upcoming “quantitative tightening” by the Fed will contribute to further increases in the yields of long-dated Treasuries this year and next. 10th February 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Household incomes taking a big hit We estimate that the leap in utility prices and hike in taxes on 1 st April will reduce real household disposable incomes over the next two years by a cumulative £80bn. The resulting 2.0% decline in... 10th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank unlikely to buck the trend for much longer While the Riksbank largely stuck to its dovish stance this morning, the fact that three of the six members of the Executive Board entered reservations and favoured reducing the size of the balance... 10th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Hiking like it’s 1994? Monetary policymakers are under pressure, with inflation historically high and acute shortages threatening to boost price pressures further still. Accordingly, there is a risk that some central banks... 10th February 2022 · 10 mins read
