US Chart Pack Better news on inflation is coming The further rise in CPI inflation to 7.5% in January and hawkish comments from Fed officials have seen markets rush to price in a series of aggressive interest rate hikes this year. But recent weeks... 17th February 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three points on the EM tightening cycle After a series of aggressive interest rate hikes, tightening cycles in parts of Emerging Europe and Latin America may now be nearing an end. But inflation concerns mean that policy rates will remain... 17th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update The outlook for German and Swiss Government bonds We think that the gap between the yields of 10-year German and Swiss government bonds will re-emerge over the next couple of years as the ECB tightens policy more quickly than the SNB. In view of the... 17th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT defies inflation surge and leaves rates on hold The further rise in inflation to close to 50% y/y in January was clearly not enough to sway Turkey’s central bank (and crucially, President Erdogan) to shift back to orthodoxy as the one-week repo... 17th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: no rate hikes this year The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate unchanged at 2.0% today and we expect rates to be left on hold throughout 2022. In contrast, the consensus is expecting 50bps of... 17th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation, interest rates & the outlook for the UK stock market We think that a backdrop of rising interest rates will help the UK stock market to continue to outperform its US counterpart. 16th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update The Ukraine crisis and the euro-zone revisited While the simmering tensions over Ukraine could keep euro-zone inflation higher for longer than most expect, we think that it is unlikely to put the ECB off plans to start normalising policy this year... 16th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Weak investment highlights long-run challenges Business investment has been much weaker in Canada than the US since the pandemic, which helps to explain why productivity growth has lagged. There are reasons to be optimistic about the next couple... 16th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Focus How high will interest rates go? With equilibrium interest rates in developed markets probably still close to record lows, actual interest rates are likely to peak at a far lower level in this cycle than in most previous ones. The... 16th February 2022 · 20 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Monetary tightening may continue to limit risky assets’ gains Even if tensions between Russia and Ukraine abated, we wouldn’t expect risky assets to gain all that much over the rest of this year and next, mainly because we think ongoing monetary tightening would... 16th February 2022 · 8 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ hiking cycle has further to run The New Zealand economy remained hot at the end of last year. And while the Omicron outbreak may disrupt activity in Q1, we expect the impact to be short-lived. We therefore forecast the RBNZ to... 16th February 2022 · 7 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) Chinese inflation continued to drop back last month. Although there are some signs of supply disruption, we think these will be temporary. Factory-gate inflation should moderate further while consumer... 16th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What to expect from QT Quantitative tightening (QT), namely the shrinking of central banks’ balance sheets, is likely to play an active role alongside rising interest rates in the tightening of monetary policy over the... 15th February 2022 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update A pause, not an end, to easing The People’s Bank (PBOC) has refrained from further policy easing for the time being. It left rates unchanged today when injecting liquidity via its reverse repo operations and medium-term lending... 15th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily The Treasury yield curve: 1994 up front, 2015 in the back? We think long-term Treasury yields will rise only gradually even if the Fed hikes rates at a rapid clip. 11th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Weak start to 2022 won’t deter monetary tightening While data from the past month have been consistent with global economic activity picking up some pace towards the tail end of 2021, timely data point to a weak turn of the year as the Omicron wave... 11th February 2022 · 14 mins read
