Canada Chart Pack Inflationary pressures broadening The evidence of broadening inflationary pressures and the further rise in oil prices suggest that the balance of risks to our inflation forecast lies to the upside. The January consumer price data... 23rd February 2022 · 8 mins read
India Chart Pack Capital outflows no major macro concern Net portfolio outflows from Indian financial markets have picked up over recent weeks as the growing prospects of war between Ukraine and Russia and tighter global monetary policy have caused risk... 23rd February 2022 · 9 mins read
RBA Watch Further jump in inflation to prompt June rate hike We now expect the RBA to start hiking in June in response to stubbornly high inflation. And while high household debt is a concern, the extreme tightness of the labour market coupled with continued... 23rd February 2022 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Hawkish RBNZ will eventually need to reverse course The RBNZ sounded hawkish when it lifted rates today suggesting the OCR will rise further than we had previously anticipated. But a more aggressive hiking cycle will be an even bigger headwind to the... 23rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Russia-Ukraine crisis adds to strain on central banks The Russia-Ukraine crisis poses a challenge for central banks in advanced economies as they weigh the upside risks to inflation against the downside risks to activity. For now, we suspect that the two... 22nd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The Ukraine conflict, monetary tightening, and financial markets While continued escalation of tensions in Ukraine would very probably put more pressure on “risky” assets in the near term, their fate further down the line might depend on how central banks responded... 22nd February 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Recapping the economic and market fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis The economic and market consequences of a war between Russia and Ukraine will depend on the severity of the conflict, and the response of the West. But in most cases the economic impact on countries... 22nd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update What would a 5-year yield target mean for Japan? If the Bank of Japan shortened the duration of its yield target, the impact on economic activity and inflation would probably be small but it could improve the long-term health of insurers and pension... 22nd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The rally in gold may reverse We doubt that the rise in the price of gold in 2022 so far will be sustained. While a lot hinges on how geopolitical tensions play out, our forecast is that it will drop back to $1,600 per ounce by... 21st February 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bank of Israel hints at lift-off in April The strength of the latest activity, labour market and inflation data prompted a shift in guidance from the Bank of Israel today in which it said that it may start a tightening cycle in the coming... 21st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Normal service to resume for Swiss/Bund bond spread Yields on 10-year Swiss government bonds have moved in lockstep with those of Bunds since the start of the pandemic, and thus followed their German counterparts above zero in January. While the Swiss... 21st February 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Post-booster bounce in the spring Services spending jumped to only 3% below its pre-virus level in Q4 2021 despite having begun the quarter on a weak footing with curfews still in place for bars and restaurants across many regions in... 21st February 2022 · 10 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack The upside looks limited for Russia’s stock market The threat of sanctions has weighed on Russia’s stock market recently, but even if tensions abated we wouldn’t expect it to make big gains over the next couple of years. 18th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank to begin quantitative tightening in March Communications from the Bank of Canada this week suggest that, as well as raising interest rates next month, the Bank will also begin quantitative tightening (QT). With inflationary pressures... 18th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB consensus building on policy normalisation While Russia-Ukraine tensions escalated further still this week, the economic spillovers to the euro-zone are likely to be limited and are therefore unlikely to change the ECB’s policy assessment... 18th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden’s CPI surprise; Norway’s glitterati have dinner The pick-up in underlying price pressures in Sweden in January plays into the hands of the Riksbank’s hawks, who are likely to flex their talons, and makes it even more difficult for Cecilia Skingsley... 18th February 2022 · 4 mins read
