Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Broadening price pressures to prompt rate hikes RBA Governor Lowe noted in a recent speech that the Bank no longer has specific criteria for deciding whether inflation is sustainably in the target range. But he highlighted that along with the... 7th March 2022 · 11 mins read
Global Markets Update How the war in Ukraine is challenging our views This Update discusses three ways in which the outbreak of war in Ukraine has called into question our asset allocation views. While the situation is fluid and the outlook especially uncertain, it also... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Following first rate hike, QT will be “next step” We expect the Bank of Canada to follow its interest rate hike this week with another one in April, when the Bank also seems likely to begin quantitative tightening. Drop-In (8 March, 10:00 EST/15:00... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Ukraine war stokes inflation, reduces growth The war in Ukraine has prompted us to revise our forecasts for euro-zone GDP, inflation and monetary policy. Russia’s downturn in 2015 had no obvious impact on euro-zone GDP and Russia has become less... 4th March 2022 · 12 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Policy headache in Thailand, Korea’s election Inflation has become a major policy headache for the Bank of Thailand after figures released today showed that the headline rate surged to a 14-year high in February. Given the weakness of the economy... 4th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update More hikes in Sri Lanka unlikely to prevent default With inflation surging, the currency coming under downward pressure and the country on the verge of a sovereign default, today’s 100bp rate hike in Sri Lanka won’t be the last in the current cycle... 4th March 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Supply worries, new inflation forecasts, LIC IPO delay? India's direct economic links with Russia and Ukraine are small but there are unintended consequences from the war. Supply shortages may intensify. Meanwhile, we’ve revised upwards our inflation... 4th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ may get less dovish, GDP to fall in Q1 PM Kishida’s two new Bank of Japan policy board nominations could push the Bank in a slightly less dovish direction, but it won’t make much difference to policy decisions over the next year. A more... 4th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will tighten soon as economy overheats Australia’s strong rebound from the Delta lockdowns left output quite close to its pre-virus trend. And with consumption holding up during the recent Omicron wave, we think GDP will return to that... 4th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Commodity prices, monetary policy expectations, & FX markets So far, the war in Ukraine has had relatively little impact on FX markets. But the knock-on effects from commodity prices and monetary policy suggest to us that the downside risks for European... 3rd March 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Ukraine war puts ECB plans on hold At next week’s monetary policy meeting, the Governing Council will stress that it will ensure banks have ample liquidity and that financial stability will be preserved while implementing EU sanctions... 3rd March 2022 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update Rate hikes in Malaysia this year remain unlikely Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) today left its main policy rate on hold and the dovish tone of its statement supports our non-consensus view that rates will remain on hold throughout 2022. We think the... 3rd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.) Turkey’s headline inflation rate leapt again to reach 54.4% y/y in February due to the combination of the lira’s collapse in late-2021 as well as higher domestic energy prices and a large minimum wage... 3rd March 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Powell keeps the Fed’s options open Chair (pro tempore) Jerome Powell indicated in his congressional testimony today that, with Russia's attacks on Ukraine roiling markets and creating additional uncertainty, he was inclined to support... 2nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank hikes by 25bp but holds off from QT The Bank of Canada’s decision to raise interest rates by 25bp today was widely expected and the statement supports our view that it will follow up with another hike next month, but there was little... 2nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update One chart to watch on Russia’s banking sector The spread of Russian interbank interest rates over the central bank’s policy rate – which was hiked aggressively on Monday – has widened pointing to some stress in the banking sector. But for now it... 2nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
