Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s downturn in full swing and spillovers to CEE Russia's economy is in the early stages of a deep recession and we now expect a 12% contraction this year. Elsewhere, we've revised down our GDP growth forecasts by 1.0-1.3%-pts in Central and Eastern... 11th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB say relax; Norges Bank to press on with hikes The SNB does not seem to be losing much sleep about the strength of the franc against the euro, despite the currency’s brief foray past parity earlier this week. The truth of the matter is that euro... 11th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Further thoughts on the ECB Yesterday’s ECB decision was more hawkish than expected, so while we are sticking to our view that QE will end in Q3 and the Bank will raise interest rates in December, the risks are now skewed... 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Feb.) The rise in Brazilian inflation to 10.5% y/y in February will be followed by further increases to more than 11% in the coming months on the back of higher fuel prices. While Copom hinted at its last... 11th March 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) Broad credit growth was much weaker than expected last month, reversing much of the acceleration of the past few months. This suggests that more easing measures will be needed to meet the policy... 11th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We expect the euro to remain under pressure this year While the ECB sounded less willing than we (and investors) had anticipated to delay plans for policy normalisation on the back of the Russia-Ukraine war, we still think that monetary policy divergence... 10th March 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics War won’t derail the MPC’s rate hiking plans The economic consequences of the war in Ukraine have worsened the already tricky mix between soaring inflation and slowing GDP growth. But we think the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is sufficiently... 10th March 2022 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update New forecasts for Lat Am inflation & rates We estimate that the impact of higher fuel, food and potentially goods prices triggered by the war in Ukraine will add roughly 1.0%-pt to headline inflation rates across major Latin American economies... 10th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB accelerates taper despite Ukraine war In today’s monetary policy statement, the ECB said the Russian invasion of Ukraine was a watershed moment for Europe, but it concluded that it does not require a big change in monetary policy. Indeed... 10th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Central banks likely to push ahead with monetary tightening The latest surge in global commodity prices has intensified the dilemma facing the world’s major central banks: on the one hand it will push headline inflation (and inflation expectations) even higher... 10th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch 2% inflation wouldn’t be enough for rate hike While the war in Ukraine will lift Japanese inflation to the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, continued weakness in wage pressures and underlying inflation mean that the Bank won’t respond with a rate hike... 10th March 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Update Higher forecasts for GDP, inflation and interest rates Surging commodity prices have led us to substantially increase our forecasts for consumer price inflation, but the negative impact of higher prices on household purchasing power, and therefore real... 9th March 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics The influence of the war on the UK economy The UK is not as exposed to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine as the rest of Europe. Even so, in response to the surge in global commodity prices caused by the war we have dramatically... 9th March 2022 · 9 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed to proceed cautiously despite war in Ukraine We expect the Fed to hike interest rates by 25bp at next week’s FOMC meeting and, despite the war in Ukraine, to unveil new projections showing five interest rate hikes for this year in total. We also... 9th March 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update NBP steps up tightening as inflation risks heighten The National Bank of Poland (NBP) stepped up the pace of tightening today with a 75bp interest rate hike, to 3.50%, and the marked deterioration in the inflation outlook due to the war in Ukraine is... 8th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: central bank to resume tightening cycle soon The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) today left interest rates on hold, but the surge in oil prices mean it is likely to resume its tightening cycle soon. Drop-In (8 March, 10:00 EST/15:00 GMT): We’re... 8th March 2022 · 2 mins read
