Japan Economics Weekly

Too early to declare end of tightening cycle

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s view that financial markets remain unstable suggests that the Bank may not raise rates as soon as October as we’re anticipating. However, Ueda reiterated that the Bank...

23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA will look past buoyant public demand

We are resending this publication because we have adjusted our forecast for the monthly CPI indicator due next week. The minutes of the RBA's August meeting revealed that the Bank remains concerned...

23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Taiwan defies dovish shift among Asia’s central banks

The common theme across the three central bank meetings in Asia this week was that inflation concerns are fading, partly due to a rebound in currencies, and policymakers appear a bit more concerned...

23rd August 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2024)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Q2 GDP data out of Emerging Europe have generally disappointed to the downside, and...

22nd August 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Aug. 2024)

The fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of August, to 5.2% y/y, alongside clear signals from the Fed that it will start loosening monetary policy next month, supports our view that Banxico...

22nd August 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Ceasefire latest, CBE governor stays on, PIF annual report

The US government has pushed for a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas this week, but an agreement seems some way off still. A deal would benefit Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon, whose economies...

22nd August 2024 · 6 mins read

Asia Economics Update

BoK set to loosen policy by more than most expect

The Bank of Korea left rates on hold again today but sounded very dovish. With policymakers now more confident about achieving their inflation target and domestic demand set to remain weak, we think...

22nd August 2024 · 3 mins read

Asia Rapid Response

Korea Policy Rate (August 2024)

The decision by the Bank of Korea to leave interest rates unchanged (at 3.5%) today came as no surprise, but of more interest will be the tone of Governor Rhee’s press conference and the central bank...

22nd August 2024 · 1 min read

US Rapid Response

Fed Minutes (July 30-31)

The minutes of the Fed’s late July policy meeting showed broad agreement that “it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting” in September. While the weak July Employment Report...

21st August 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Update

Will public sector pay rises drive up inflation?

We don’t think the slew of inflation-busting public sector pay deals that have been agreed by the new government will prevent wage growth from slowing next year to the rates of 3.0-3.5% we think are...

21st August 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Update

Jackson Hole unlikely to bring more clarity

Central bankers are unlikely to offer much forward guidance at this weekend’s Jackson Hole symposium, preferring to stress their “data dependence”. Since most economies are expanding, inflation is...

21st August 2024 · 5 mins read

FX Markets Update

The outlook for the US dollar as Fed cuts approach

With the Fed set to finally start loosening policy and a soft landing still looking like the most probable outcome for the US economy, we think unfavourable rate differentials and continued robust...

21st August 2024 · 4 mins read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul' 24)

The larger-than-expected decline in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 4.6% y/y, in July strengthens the case for the SARB to start its easing cycle with a 25bp cut to 8.00% at its next...

21st August 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Rapid Response

BI hints at rate cuts in Q4

Bank Indonesia today left its policy rate unchanged at 6.25%, but the central bank’s dovish commentary supports our view that rates will be cut before the end of the year. We expect the central bank...

21st August 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Rapid Response

Thailand Monetary Policy Meeting (August 2024)

Thailand’s central bank (BoT) today left interest rates unchanged but if, as we expect, growth slows further and inflation remains very low, we think the central bank will start loosening policy from...

21st August 2024 · 2 mins read