Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (December 2024)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The region recorded robust growth in Q3 but we think that tight policy, worsening...

17th December 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.)

The Hungarian central bank left its base rate on hold again today, at 6.50%, and we think that a rise in inflation in early 2025 will keep rates on hold until at least the new governor, Mihaly Varga...

17th December 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economic Outlook

China Outlook: Stimulus bounce will be short-lived

China’s leadership has signalled that policy will be loosened further, which will provide a near-term prop to activity. But we still expect China’s growth to slow next year, because of the more...

17th December 2024 · 16 mins read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (December 2024)

After a stellar run, India’s economy has entered a softer patch that will continue for a few more quarters. We think that will portend an underperformance in local equities relative to other major...

17th December 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (December 2024)

EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of the year but faces headwinds in 2025 from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary...

16th December 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Economic Outlook

Low growth, low inflation, low rates

We expect economic growth in the euro-zone to remain sluggish. This is partly due to adverse demographics and structural forces hampering the competitiveness of industry. But past monetary tightening...

16th December 2024 · 28 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA activity, naira gains to fade, Ghana election

While data out this week showed renewed struggles in South Africa’s mining sector, other figures suggest that a recovery has taken hold in Q4, which should accelerate next year with help from lower...

13th December 2024 · 6 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Attention to shift from monetary to fiscal policy

Following another large 50bp cut this week, the Bank of Canada confirmed that it will take a more gradual approach in 2025, in part due to the extra fiscal stimulus set to be confirmed by the...

13th December 2024 · 5 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Muted price data cements 25bp cut

The tame November price data has soothed concerns about a resurgence in price pressures, giving the green light for the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp at next week's meeting.

13th December 2024 · 7 mins read

Asia Economic Outlook

Asia Outlook: More rate cuts coming

We expect another year of below-trend and below-consensus GDP growth in most of Asia in 2025, as tight fiscal policy and weak exports weigh on output. In China, a slowdown in construction will act as...

13th December 2024 · 28 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Milei’s one-year anniversary, Brazil’s jumbo rate hike

Argentinian President Javier Milei's first year in office has been much more successful than we (and other analysts) had expected but, absent a weaker exchange rate, it will be difficult to return the...

13th December 2024 · 8 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

ECB dovish; French politics; defence spending to rise?

Investors appear to have interpreted Christine Lagarde’s comments yesterday, and the subsequent leaks to the media, as more hawkish than expected. But we remain convinced that the ECB will cut...

13th December 2024 · 5 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Asia Weekly: Close call for the Bank of Thailand

The coming week sees scheduled central bank meetings in Pakistan, Thailand, Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. We are expecting holds in Indonesia and Taiwan, but cuts in the rest. The closest...

13th December 2024 · 8 mins read

India Economics Weekly

India Weekly: Stars align for February repo rate cut

The change in leadership at the RBI, along with the drop in headline CPI inflation in November reported this week, mean the stars are aligning for a repo rate cut in February.

13th December 2024 · 3 mins read

China Economics Weekly

China Weekly: CEWC flags boosting consumption as top priority

The full readout from the Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) adds weight to the idea that China’s leadership is shifting its focus toward supporting consumption. But it still appears too fixated...

13th December 2024 · 6 mins read