Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Anna Breman baffles a bunch of students The finer points of Anna Breman’s views on the outlook for Riksbank policy were probably lost on her audience of a group of secondary students in a speech this week, but the message for avid Riksbank... 25th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Focus Property the weak link as interest rates rise We think that property markets are the weak link when it comes to the impact of tightening monetary policy. A modest rise in interest rates might only cause price falls in a few obvious candidates... 25th March 2022 · 22 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly More dovish signals from South East Asia Dovish comments from policymakers over the past week support our view that central banks in South East Asia will buck the trend of global tightening and leave interest rates unchanged over the coming... 25th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico’s hawkish tilt as Amlo slips up Yesterday’s unanimous vote by Mexico’s central bank to raise the policy rate by 50bp, to 6.50%, came as no surprise since it had already been revealed by President López Obrador (Amlo) earlier in the... 25th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflationary pressures rising Australia’s flash PMI for March provides further evidence that the pace of price rises is increasing and we think that strong inflation will convince the RBA to hike interest rates in June. Meanwhile... 25th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Support measures won’t prevent inflation reaching 2% The government is preparing fresh support measures to lower prices of petroleum products, which will reduce the drag on household incomes and will prevent inflation from breaching 2% for now. We still... 25th March 2022 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB continues to tighten, hawks gaining ground The upside inflation risks created by the war in Ukraine and the solid performance of South Africa’s economy prompted the Reserve Bank to push ahead with its tightening cycle today, raising the repo... 24th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Petrodollars probably won’t save Treasuries this time The reinvestment of oil revenues into US markets probably helped avert a rout in Treasuries during the mid-2000s hiking cycle, but even with oil prices on the rise again we don’t expect so-called... 24th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank dials up hawkishness as SNB bides time Ida Wolden Bache kicked off her time in charge at the Norges Bank with a rate hike and prepared the ground for even more aggressive tightening. We now expect 175bps of hikes by end-2023, to 2.50%, and... 24th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: central bank in no rush to tighten The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate on hold at 2.00% today and will be in little hurry to tighten policy in the months ahead, with supporting the economic recovery set... 24th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tighter financial conditions point to sluggish growth Our proprietary Financial Conditions Indices suggest that global financial conditions have recently been as tight as they were during the China hard landing fears of 2015 and point to GDP growth... 23rd March 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch Tightening risks recession but inaction would be worse The war in Ukraine has worsened the dilemma for the world’s major central banks: on the one hand it will push inflation even higher, but on the other it has raised the downside risks to real activity... 23rd March 2022 · 11 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack How the war in Ukraine has changed our thinking The war in Ukraine, as well as the hawkish tone adopted by some developed market (DM) central banks, have led us to revise up our end-22 and end-23 forecasts for government bond yields in some DMs and... 23rd March 2022 · 8 mins read
US Chart Pack Inflation to fall sharply in H2 While the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russian oil mean energy prices will remain elevated and push headline inflation above 8% in March, it will still fall sharply later this year. Energy... 23rd March 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Market-implied policy tightening could topple housing The surge in interest rate expectations is a key risk to housing. We recently set out how, due to the much larger share of variable rate mortgages than before the pandemic, the Bank of Canada would... 23rd March 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack War in Ukraine to drag on EM GDP growth The war in Ukraine will have several economic repercussions for the emerging world. We have lowered our aggregate EM GDP growth forecast for 2022 by 1%-pt, to 3.2%. Russia aside, the biggest downward... 23rd March 2022 · 9 mins read
