Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Hawkish RBNZ will hike rates to 3.0% The RBNZ’s decision to accelerate its hiking cycle shows it is willing to move decisively to get a hand on surging inflation. That’s in line with our forecast that it will hike the OCR to 3.0% by the... 13th April 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economic Outlook Economy will bend not break under higher rates We expect the economy to bend rather than break under the pressure of a rapid monetary tightening by the Fed. We anticipate that real economic growth will remain consistently below its 2% potential... 12th April 2022 · 22 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian inflation and rates to rise much further Egyptian inflation rose to a near-three year high in March and will continue to pick up on the back of the spillovers from the war in Ukraine and last month’s devaluation. We now think interest rates... 11th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel: interest rate lift-off with a 25bp hike The Bank of Israel kick-started its tightening cycle today with a 25bp interest rate hike to 0.35% and we think it will deliver further hikes at its upcoming meetings, taking rates to around 2.00% in... 11th April 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update More thoughts on the RBI’s policy shift The RBI’s policy announcement and the introduction of the Standing Deposit Facility has prompted a number of questions from clients on its intended purpose and what it means for monetary policy. This... 11th April 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Mar.) Broad credit growth was much stronger than expected last month amid increased policy support. With more easing on the horizon, we expect a further acceleration although a sharp pick-up in lending... 11th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Following 2022 budget, attention turns to the Bank The government used its 2022 Budget to set out a host of proposals to make housing more affordable for Canadians, but the impact of these measures on house prices will be far overshadowed by the... 8th April 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed lurching from one extreme to the other The Fed minutes revealed that officials are in a hawkish mood and, after their brief flirtation with the flexible average inflation framework last year, they are now desperate to rapidly recalibrate... 8th April 2022 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana’s policy tightening to hold back recovery Ghana’s economic recovery will remain sluggish over the next couple of years as policy is tightened in a bid to shore up the public finances and tackle high inflation. The risk of an imminent... 8th April 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Russia relations, LIC IPO, RBI policy stance Relations between India and Russia came under fresh scrutiny this week. But tentative signs that India is beginning to tread more carefully suggest that discounted Russian commodities are now even... 8th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Pakistan: PM Khan stumped, emergency hike by SBP In Pakistan, the week began with a constitutional crisis and it will likely end with a new Prime Minister at the helm following the Supreme Court ruling on Thursday. Prime Minister Khan’s successors... 8th April 2022 · 7 mins read
India Economics Update RBI turning less accommodative The MPC’s unanimous decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 4.00% today came as no surprise but the introduction of a new policy rate that sets a higher floor for the interest rate corridor... 8th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA signals June rate hike is coming After the RBA this week signalled that it will no longer be patient when it comes to tightening policy, the consensus has come around to our long-held view that the Bank will start to lift interest... 8th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Budget 2022 unlikely to move the needle for the Bank The government announced a smorgasbord of new policies in the 2022 Budget, but the total increase in the budget deficit, at just $7bn, was arguably far lower than some feared. Moreover, as most of the... 7th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egyptian pound, Kuwait political turmoil, Tunisia election The Egyptian pound has remained relatively stable since last month’s devaluation, but we think policymakers need to move to a more flexible exchange rate and allow the currency to weaken further... 7th April 2022 · 7 mins read
ECB Watch Rate hikes are coming! The Governing Council is likely to leave its policy guidance unchanged at next week’s monetary policy meeting, saying it expects to end net asset purchases in Q3 and raise policy rates “some time”... 7th April 2022 · 7 mins read
