China Economic Outlook No quick fix this time China’s economy rebounded sharply from the initial COVID-19 outbreak. The recovery will be slower and more muted this time, even if the ongoing COVID outbreak is successfully quashed, as less policy... 26th April 2022 · 21 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf leads the way as Ukraine war drives divergence The Gulf economies will be major beneficiaries from higher energy prices and our growth forecasts sit far above the consensus. Outside the Gulf, higher inflation and tighter fiscal policy will weigh... 25th April 2022 · 25 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation surge to prompt more rapid tightening The surge in consumer price inflation in March leads us to think that the Bank of Canada will now rapidly raise its policy rate to 2.5% by the end of the year. 23rd April 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook A year of stagflation The war in Ukraine has delivered a shock to Europe just as it was coming out of the pandemic. Higher energy prices will keep inflation elevated, squeeze household incomes and dent business confidence... 22nd April 2022 · 31 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed set to push harder on the brakes With Fed officials seemingly competing to try and sound more hawkish than their peers, a 50bp rate hike next month appears nailed on – even though this week also brought further tentative signs that... 22nd April 2022 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update MPC minutes highlight change in priorities The minutes of the MPC’s early April meeting – in which the committee kept the repo rate on hold but introduced a new rate that set a higher floor for the interest rate corridor – confirm that taming... 22nd April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB officials begin to talk of July rate hike With several members of the ECB Governing Council coming out in favour of a July rate hike this week we are feeling more confident in our forecast that the Bank will raise its deposit rate to +0.25%... 22nd April 2022 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Salmon-omics; Riksbank set to hike We expect the Riksbank to raise the repo rate by 25bps, to +0.25%, next week. But whereas some central banks – notably the US Fed – are gearing up for aggressive tightening cycles, the comparatively... 22nd April 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC will embrace the renminbi’s decline The People’s Bank appears to have been pushing against the renminbi’s strength for a while. This week, finally, the market responded. The PBOC doesn’t have much tolerance for sharp market moves and... 22nd April 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Spillovers from war in Ukraine intensifying The perfect storm of surging commodity prices due to the war in Ukraine and the hawkish shift by major DM central banks has pushed a few frontier markets to the brink of sovereign default. Sri Lanka... 22nd April 2022 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Signs of exports softening, new governor at the BoK There are growing signs that demand for the region’s exports are starting to soften. Weaker external demand will add to the headwinds facing the region’s economies, which are already being hit by the... 22nd April 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA set to hike aggressively this year The minutes of the RBA’s April meeting show that it is coming around to our view that rates will need to be hiked before long. We expect next week’s Q1 CPI data to show inflation surpassing 4%, which... 22nd April 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Fresh yen & bond market turmoil, poor growth outlook The Bank of Japan had to step in yet again to defend its 10-year yield target this week, but it didn’t have to go to the same lengths as in late-March to keep yields in check. With yields nailed to... 22nd April 2022 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Mar. 2022) Inflation picked up in March due to a further rise in utilities inflation and a jump in food inflation. And headline inflation will hit 2% in the April data released in just under a month’s time as... 22nd April 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Tighter policy to drive GDP growth below potential Economic activity should expand at a strong pace this year but, with the Bank of Canada set to tighten policy rapidly, we expect the quarterly pace of GDP growth to slow below potential in 2023, as... 21st April 2022 · 19 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook High commodity prices won’t lift all boats The surge in commodity prices will drive stronger regional growth than the consensus expects this year, but not all economies in Latin America will benefit. While Brazil and Colombia will see a terms... 21st April 2022 · 26 mins read
