UK Economics Update Dovish hold suggests rates will be cut further than markets expect While the Bank of England left interest rates at 4.75% today, it struck a slightly more dovish tone. This supports our view that the next 25 basis points (bps) rate cut will come in February and that... 19th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The Czech central bank (CNB) left its policy rate on hold at 4.00% today, but we think that the easing cycle will resume before long. We still expect rates to fall towards 3.00% by the end of next... 19th December 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response Bank of England Policy Announcement (19th Dec. 2024) While the Bank of England left interest rates at 4.75% today, it struck a slightly more dovish tone. This supports our view that the next 25 basis points (bps) rate cut will come in February and that... 19th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Weathering geopolitical storms and tariff threats We expect 2025 to be another year of reasonably healthy global GDP growth and a continued normalisation of monetary policy. To the extent that tariffs hurt the global economy, the damage will be less... 19th December 2024 · 44 mins read
Capital Daily Pressure on yen from Fed could fade next year We think 2025 will be a better year for the Japanese yen against the US dollar than 2024 has been, as the relative monetary policy picture shifts more decisively in its favour. 19th December 2024 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Dec. 24) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy should post decent growth in Q4 off the back of more forceful fiscal support. The... 19th December 2024 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ taking its time but will speed up tightening in 2025 The Bank of Japan's decision to leave rates on hold for a third consecutive meeting was not a great surprise. But in the post-meeting press conference Governor Ueda sounded in no hurry at all to... 19th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank and Riksbank divergence continues The Riksbank’s decision to cut its policy rate by 25bp to 2.5% was widely anticipated and we expect it to cut just one last time next year, by 25bp in March. In contrast, Norges Bank left its policy... 19th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (Nov. 24) November’s surge in inflation wasn’t a surprise – the Bank of Japan will have known it was on the cards when it decided not to hike rates yesterday. But it should add to the Bank’s confidence that it... 19th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (December 2024) The Riksbank cut its policy rate by just 25bp today to 2.5% and it is unlikely to cut at its next meeting in January. Further ahead, we now expect just one more 25bp cut next year, in March, as we... 19th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Taiwan Monetary Policy Announcement (December 2024) Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left its main policy rate unchanged today (at 2.0%) and with risks to the inflation outlook skewed firmly to the upside we expect rates to remain on hold throughout 2025... 19th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Philippines Monetary Policy Announcement (December 2024) 19th December 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed delivers a hawkish rate cut The Fed did cut interest rates by an additional 25bp today, as was largely expected, taking the fed funds rate down to between 4.25% and 4.50%. But the vote was not unanimous and, in a hawkish shift... 18th December 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Policy Announcement (Dec) The Fed did cut interest rates by an additional 25bp today, as was largely expected, taking the fed funds rate down to between 4.25% and 4.50%. But the vote was not unanimous and, in a hawkish shift... 18th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa next year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in certain... 18th December 2024 · 0 mins read
